Weekly Review: 02-01-2016

Main Account: +$651.

Back Account: - $1222.

Stats for main account:

Bit of a test of character week. Missed some stops, and nearly took a stop-out for the day once, and then broke the goal of not being greedy one day (which I got punished for thankfully). Overall results ended quite good thankfully, but much work to do in terms of process.

Without a doubt I have to hit stops this coming week, has caused too much trouble this January. The other goal continues to be not to get greedy. With regards to hitting stops, it may be a lot easier to hit them if I slow down the sizing in process, and avoid sizing to max size (which I have been doing too quickly).

Trading Review: 01-29-2016

Main Account: +$215. Pretty solid day overall with nothing really giving me grief. Reached $200 target within the first hour(ish) and kept trading in a disciplined manner. Hindsight I should have continued trading with even further decreased sized, but no worries - got to start somewhere.

Probably the big takeaway from today is that have to be careful buying at highs (FB), shorting at lows (JUNO) midday. Had exactly the right bias on FB, but buying dips versus buying the breakout (unless had rather wide stop-loss) and therefore didn't get paid off on a decent risk-reward trade (was instead stopped out).

Trading Review: 01-28-2016

Main Account: -$257. First losing day of the year, and relatively happy with the magnitude of it (although it could have been worse!). Today was also the first day I let my greed get the better of me, so have failed on that goal for this week. Probably makes sense to go through things in chronological order to get a sense of how the greed slipped in.

Bear in mind that at some stage I do want to stage continuing to trade past the $200 goal. Today it became incredibly clear how I should do that:
(1) Hit the target.
(2) Reduce size of all positions and trail stop-losses.
(3) Take a nap/break to re-establish fresh mind-set.
(4) Trade with reduced position sizes for the rest of the day.

So day started with some really solid trading on UA, NEOS, and FB; and I actually battled UA and FB for a little bit before catching the intended move. At this point I was up about 400-500 across the three names. At this stage I thought "okay I'm trading pretty well and there's some decent opportunity" so I'll keep going. This led to giving a fair bit back and being down about $500 on the day. Faults were similar faults to other losing days, but it was inspired by the greed of wanting more... Which I now believe can be controlled by the above measures.

Of the actual trades made today:
(1) FEYE - spontaneous trade, not a very good one nor entry and didn't accumulate size in the correct manner.
(2) DATA - Really solid trade idea (obviously). But went full size far too early.
(3) TRXC - Was a news trade, but was too big. Start small add to winner on more reaction. With a news trade aren't going to need much size to have big winner.
(4) UVXY - Good trade idea. Took the stop, could have traded around position a little instead of stopping, but oh well.
(5) OSIS - One long, that was too big (with wide stop) and a little spontaneous, then one short where it was a good idea but got everything in at once, ending up stopping and the trade worked.
(6) GLNG - Good trade, nothing wrong with this one.
(7) FB - Don't even know how I ended up losing so much on this one. Traded it well on the open, then not really sure where it all went... Took a couple of shorts near the highs, but the main issue I think was the size...
(8) UA - Excellent trading in the morning, was completely wrong with timing but still managed position correctly to eventually catch the move. Afternoon tried a textbook afternoon breakout type trade and mismanaged size.
(9) INO - Excellent faultless trading. Scaled into short and traded around position pretty much all day.
(10) NEOS - Had exactly the right bias and instead of putting a market order I tried to provide liquidity, missed it and missed a $3 crush... This was on the open and I still had a little bit. Did a good job re-establishing the trade into vwap area, but then mismanaged size from there on out.

Trading Review: 01-27-2016

Main Account: +$339. Another rough day. The positive to all these rough days is that they are occurring under a net positive day, whereas if I didn't have total size under control they may stem out of control.
Will go through each symbol and identify mistakes.

DV: Was a breaking news FTC investigation. Looking to join trend. A mistake I have been making with these plays was shorting weakness instead of strength (until the true breakdown), and then sizing up too quick (the half hour guide). I definitely did a better job this time around! But still wasn't a good enough average. Made the risk-reward quite horrible, and on full size...
Another mistake made on this was that I got greedy near the lows and didn't cover some. Ended up correcting mistake (at a worse price), and overall the greed factor wasn't too bad... But reality is that if I want to be patient on a trade I can't stay full size, have to be down to at least 1/3.

ETE: Was a silly chase on oil strength. Enough said.

VMW: Had the right bias coming into the market... Didn't catch any short on opening pop, which I definitely should have!
Then tried to short a breakdown, and didn't take the stop when it reversed.

ANFI: Good trade idea, just didn't work. Am okay with that.

BA: Incredible trading. Would almost say faultless trading. It went from 120 to 115 (August lows support) then back to 120. I was initially long against $119, but took the stop and actually reversed and then rode it down to 116ish, taking out partials along the way (not being greedy).
I then reversed into 115, was hoping to catch a flush of 115 and had orders in but it never happened. Unfortunately this meant that I missed getting long at 115, and ended up long at 115.60ish which wasn't really a good enough price. Accordingly I should have been aggressively trying to get out of some size, but I adjusted order higher (greed) and it would have been filled before testing 115 again.
Then when it got back up to 120 I got short against the high of day and rode it for a point of two. Great trading!

AAPL: Had the right bias on AAPL out of the open but never really capitalised. But I'm somewhat okay about how I traded it.

Trading Review: 01-26-2015

Main Account: +$349. Was done super quick in the day. But I'm not actually convinced I traded very well.

Firstly, RLYP was an incredible trade and would have paid off very handsomely if I hadn't had to pull out for meeting my target for the day.

Conveniently UVXY peaked exactly where I sold it all. Had the complete wrong bias on it all day, and was roughly saved by having the target. Due to the faults (below) I probably would have lost a reasonable amount.

But the faults were:
(1) Sizing in too quickly. Just because something has popped up doesn't mean stop-loss can be trailed, which is of course the ideal time to size up. Also, a higher low/lower low occurs on a higher time-frame, not a wee m1 oscillation.
(2) Also in general just being too focused on size. My guidelines are most of the time to remain 2/5s of a position size, not max size. Hitting target so quickly is indicative of maxing out size too much.
(3) Not being picky enough with prices. Definitely didn't have a good enough average on either of these trades. RLYP I had a somewhat better average though.

Back Account: +$88. Mental note that the commission was doubled on each side of the trade, so need to look into that...

Trading Review: 01-25-2015

Main Account: +$5.

Nasty day. Very nearly got stopped out for the day, was down a tiny bit over $1000 and just about to hit out and call it quits. But then it completely reversed and I hung on.

Anyway, the cause of the big drawdown was again not having stops in. A stock that I was short had a monster breakout all within 2 minutes, and so I never really got an opportunity to hit it. Unfortunately although it did reverse it also managed to do one or two fakes before reversing, so I had stop-outs on them as well.

I tilted a little after that, but overall it wasn't too bad. Focus on those times of tilt needs to be on getting excellent entries, and sizing in very slowly.

Another general comment for the day is that the losers were way too big. This relates to sizing in too quickly, and not getting good enough entries, and not adding to only winners. Best example of this was ZFGN, where it was a classic fraud piece play and instead of giving it the 30 minutes to slowly size in on pops, cover dips and then add on trend break I chased a little, added too quick and ended up getting squeezed out. The play still wouldn't have worked, but by shorting pops and keeping size appropriate it would have been much more controlled.

Back Account: -$1310.

Weekly Review: 01-24-2016

Main Account: +$1171. Solid week with 4/4 profitable days. There were some faults though.

The first, was drawing down a lot on ZFGN parabolic and not using my size correctly.

The second, was getting somewhat tilted and being impatient/chasing.

It is pretty clear that I need to stay at these sizes, and this profit goal for a little longer to ensure the focus on consistency. Therefore will be the same goals for next week, all unaltered.

However, I met my goals for the week in that I: (1) obeyed my sizing rules, (2) Respected my max drawdown (although came close to it once), (3) Finished up for the day once $200 target reached. On the last day when I had the short UVXY conviction trade on I nearly broke this rule. but I stayed disciplined.

Back Account: +$1545. Really solid week, haven't quite reached first withdrawal, but another successful high conviction trade and I will be at first withdrawal for account; which will be good!

Adding in these stats for main account. Not much to see there, except that average winners should be a bit bigger than average losers.. However, there were quite a few trades that were cut off early (because of $200 goal), so happy enough with that for now.

Trading Review: 01-22-2016

Main Account: +$295. Was a really rough day. For whatever reason I had a couple of losses early on (although I nailed NFLX) which caused me a little tilt. It was somewhat different to the other day of bad trading on ZFGN (because that was a badly managed parabolic trade), whereas this was just a couple of losses tilting me. This tilt caused me to prematurely size into trade, and to chase instead of being patient.

At the peak was down about $400. Really happy with the way I pulled it back though. For the most part I corrected the behaviour I recognised. As an exercise I went through and worked out exactly how much this tilt cost me. I was pretty generous with the figures, because can't assume perfect execution, so here are the costs:
NFLX -- More than $50.
ZFGN -- More than $30.
UVXY -- More than $140. In particular with UVXY it cost me quite a lot more than $140 because when I was stopping out my adds I also stopped out my starter position, which was initiated again at a worse price after the stop-out. So UVXY is probably more like a bit over $180ish.
So it cost a total of $220 minimum.

Another food for thought is that I need to stay consistent long enough so that a few losses in a row like today don't really get me too tilted.

Again left a tonne of money on the table. Was short max size on UVXY, and had I scaled out accordingly to plan I would have made another $200-$400... But as usual, that's okay!

Back Account: $0. Just making this reference because GBSN which I had intended to swing met target today, which would have been another $1000. All that being said, it wasn't quite within my niche, and it was a swing trade (I am currently specialising in day-trades). So I feel okay about it.

Playbook Review: $ZFGN 01-20-2015

Trade Description: ZFGN had good news which caused it to gap up, but was sold off relatively heavily in the premarket. This can sometimes be an indicator that it may continue to fade the gap, so that's why I was looking to take the short into the premarket resistance.

However, it obviously carried on and had a pretty sizeable parabolic. When I traded this I drew-down quite a lot, and broke my rules - which in turn resulted a worse average than I should have had... And a horrible risk profile.

(1) Need to remember that it's day 1 of significant news. By the time I took the stop at 10am it was obviously VERY strong, and better to wait for the back side to add size. I then added back the 1/5th size to early (but I'm okay with that because it's part of my rules to be a bit free with the 1/5). Arguably given the demonstrative strength I could have waited for this 1/5th though.

(2) I added to 2/5s size too early. My guidelines suggest that I should have a hard stop in when I go 2/5s size. The only possible risk area was clearly the premarket high... But you need to put stop to allow for a wick through, so it was too early to define risk.

(3) Being upside down on the earlier position I added to 4/5s size before the parabolic peaked out.


Now flip all of this and consider how it should have been traded...
(1) Started in 1/5th where thought it was a reasonable spot to peak out.

(2) Gone to 2/5s either around the premarket high with a wide stop (probably not be best move given the potential volatility. Or gone to 2/5s on the first sign of fail momentum (aka first red candle on m2).

(3) Attempted to take some off into flush from the peak. Maybe get a fill here, maybe not. Ideally would because it means can be more aggressive on the lower high.

(4) Gone to 3/5s or 4/5s size on the lower high stuff move with risk defined by the high. Then added on new low.

(5) Cover down size relatively quickly, but hold about 2/5s for a reasonable period of time because it seemed broken.

(6) Trade turned into a massive trade compared to the original one which was a tiny trade with a big draw-down.

Trading Review: 01-21-2016

Main Account: +306. Really solid day. Traded pretty much perfectly. Of particular note was adhering to rules regarding guidelines of how to use size.

Again, a lot of money left on the table today - plenty of moves... But sticking to goal. Of particular note was ALKS which I had a fair bit of conviction was going to have a bit downtrend day... And it did, from $40 to close at $34.

One other thing I'm pretty happy with is that I was trading UVXY on the short side, but then it went reg sho so I couldn't trade it on the short side anymore... So I switched to SVXY immediately and traded the position accordingly.

Back Account: +313. The GBSN position was actually meant to be a swing position. Was long 0.1670, looking for a multi-day move to at least 0.3000... But being up on the close, and it's slightly outside of my niche I decided to take profit at 0.1994. Closed in the after-hours at 0.24.
Overall, I'm happy enough with decision. Being slightly outside of my niche, if there was a really nice setup tomorrow I would have to sell GBSN at a potentially unfavourable price tomorrow to trade the ideal setup.

Trading Review: 01-20-2016

Main Account: +$230. Not too happy with the days trading. Was all good apart from ZFGN. Was down nearly max draw-down on it at one point. I stuck to sizing rules, but ignored guidelines for how to manage size (i.e. only a max of 2/5s into parabolic, and even then have a stop). If I hadn't ignored these guidelines, it was picture perfect and I would have added size once it turned near the top and caught a massive move. Will have to do a play-book review on this trade to reinforce how it should have been traded.
All this being said, I stuck to max sizing rules so damage was controlled more than it otherwise could have been.

This is another day that I left a tonne on the table (ignoring the money left on table from ZFGN) as there was plenty of volatility later in the day. But again, until I am consistently earning the $200 I will be calling the day short.

One trade I am really happy with is WYNN. I started in, and noticed the bounce failing along with SPY, so got out of the starter position.

SRPT was quite lucky, I closed short (was full size) because I had met goals for day and it rallied after that.

Back Account: +$849. Again stuck to niche, nice to have two trades pop up two days in a row. Today's one was somewhat illiquid and I narrowly missed covers at the morning lows and had to ride it back up to near the highs before covering on the down-move. A shame because it would have been a chance to rinse and repeat (but they did limit leverage on it so not sure if I could have or not).

Trading Review: 01-19-2016

Main Account: + $340. Kind of funny. Computer froze and needed restarting when I was up roughly $150 and when I got it turned back on I was up $340, so liquidated all positions... And that's the reason for being over the $200 goal.

Really really happy with trading overall. A good start to the year. Had some good ideas, and executed pretty spot on.

One mistake was that I was too quick to jump to max size on CFMS. It was an A+ setup, but I knew that based on the type of play it was (a breaking new fraud report type play) that I had to give the squeeze at least half an hour, and I was full size after a wee stuff after 10 minutes ish.

Left a tonne of money on the table, but that's okay because I met my goal and it's good to take it slow to build my consistency. Once I begin fiddling with goals (after achieving a month of $200 every day I will look to change that).

Back Account: +$383. Really good. Trade fitted right into my niche and executed well on it. It went further but didn't get too greedy and took it off.

2016: New Year, New Goals

Overall I want to work on my consistency and aim for at least 4/5 days a week positive.

Redefining Rules (main account):

(1) I have always traded with a max draw-down on my main account and back account. To start the year off the max intraday drawdown of my main account will be $1000. I am looking to change that (to bring it more in line with approximate profit goals) but for now am having it quite large to maximise the probability of having a positive day.

(2) To start with am going to target earning $200 a day. The reason for targeting this is purely to maximise the probability of a profitable day. After about a month will look to change this, and bring the target and draw-down further in line.

(3) Max sizes completely defined (on main account). In the past I have focused on using unrealised profit as risk to increase size, and have also adjusted the size by the ATR. Of course this is the way it should be done... But I have had difficulty doing it on the spot... Additionally the adding has created problems with greed and dollars lost on a stop out (because there's more size letting it go an extra 10c means it goes further).

While I am trading I will still adjust size for the ATR but this is absolute max:

$1-$10 -- 500 shares.

$10-$20 -- 400 shares.

$20-$50 -- 300 shares.

$50-$100 -- 200 shares.

$100-$200 -- 100 shares.

$200+ -- 50 shares.

Additionally guidelines for how to treat the sizing:

        (i) In general max size shouldn't be achieved unless adding to a winner with a trailed stop-loss and orders to reduce size quickly already in place.

        (ii) Counter-trend trades should only have 1/5 entered initially, and then another 1/5th added once a stop-loss can be put in place. 

        (iii) 80% of the time should be trading on 3/5s or less.

Redefining Rules (back account): 

I have always had trouble setting rules for my back account because I am deliberately aggressive and somewhat ruthless on it. However, there are some clear improvements that can be made.

(1) Back account max drawdown will still be the same at around 1/2-1/3 of the account, but will be strictly obeyed. This is because the only two times in 2015 when I reached this point and carried on I lost more money, and those two day were very pivotal for the entire year (-18k and -45k). Reduce those two days to where the drawdown was stopping me out and they would become -11k and -15k respectively. In turn that would have had a flow on effect via risk-taking and confidence for the rest of the year.

(2) Only go max size once trend is in place and stop-loss is defined.

(3) Trade only pieces of trash below $10, and 19/20 times should be on the short side. This is my niche that I don't mind throwing money at aggressively.

(4) Withdraw half of any profits over $1000. If I haven't been able to withdraw profits (because of the 3-day rule) halt trading if account triples without a withdrawal.