Wednesday, 20 July 2016

Trading Review: 07-18-2016 and 07-19-2016














(18th) Gross PnL: -$486.

(18th) After Commissions: -$549.

This day was a bit of a bummer. Prior to this day I had been starting to get a bit of confidence (this is usually a sign that I'm about to get humbled). All this being said; this day had the potential to be a complete blow-up day if I hadn't cut losses short, so it definitely could have been worse.
It helps to show the pnl on shorts (red) and longs (green) to get an idea of how volatile this day was. Going through in chronological order sort of paints a picture for mistakes as well.

Trade 1: On the open I shorted PRKR, with a stop against the high. This trade was intended as a quick scalp to lock in some tiny profit, so I could re-evaluate the direction after the gap showed signs of holding. In the past week or so this trade has worked, provided didn't get too greedy on taking profit; and provided you were only looking to hold for short duration. This time it went parabolic pretty much straight off the open. A hard stop-loss and/or a massive amount of discipline would have saved me $200-$400 here; but less discipline would have cost me my account, so it's a step in the right direction.

Trade 2: Flipped PRKR long and sold when the momentum from the parabolic started breaking. Without the loss on the short (which certainly wasn't an A+ trade) this would have been a massive home run trade, so from that perspective a little disappointing. Bit of a chase and was hard to get a fill. There was definitely a bit of greed here trying to make back the loss - this borderline tilt (although sticking to plan) probably affected the DGLY trades later on.

Trade 3 and 4: Don't exactly recall these trades in particular, but it was a difficult stock to trade in that it never really picked a direction. As a very general guide, shorting these low floats hasn't paid off recently. So I will need to adjust and focus on long side. I actually prefer it this way, because despite the short side being more predictable (when the short side is in play), there is a lot more money to be made on the long side. This shows up in PRKR as well.





(19th) Gross PnL: -$288.

(19th) After Commissions: -$332.

Although not making a huge amount of trades, this day reeks of over-trading and lack of patience. I believe this arises somewhat from performance pressure, and from not applying strategy consistently (this applies in trades 1 and 2, and 3). Overall, a tough stock to trade.

Side note: My strategy is to take profit quickly, rinse and repeat at least once or twice, then try to hold for home run if opinion still proves to be correct.

Trade 1: Short off the open, on the retest of opening levels. Issue with entry is that stop-loss goes against the highs (5.70), so entry at 5.40 isn't good enough, OR smacking it at 5.35-5.40 after peaks out and stop at 5.50 is fine as well. Took profit into lows, as per plan, with the goal of putting the position back on. Narrowly missed offer to put back on, which is fine. This began the trigger of impatience that I traded the stock with after this. Interesting to note here that if I held full position I would have made quite a bit on short side off the open, but it's correct as part of my strategy to take profits quickly.

Trade 2: Shorted the pop off the lows at $5.00. This wasn't a good enough entry given the big down-move off the open. However, if I had taken profit quickly (as per strategy) it would have been fine. Could have rinsed and repeated this trade twice before getting stopped out, and with correct entry that would have been a really significant profit.

Trade 3: Flipped long when was stopped out of short. Am okay with this trade, and was a tiny loss. Could have been quicker on selling it when the trend move failed, but it is what it is - only tiny loss here. Good trade. If anything I should have been more receptive to the failure to make new lows (short trap type behaviour). And potentially got long there. I remember thinking this at the time, but had the short on, so (potentially?) clouded.

Trade 4: After the massive vwap stuff seemed like a clear fade to new lows, and i still stand by this opinion. But entry not good enough. Better entry would have allowed for a scalp around position before eventual stop-out.































Takeaway Points:
(1) Still clear lack of patience and fomo showing up. Need to be completely unafraid to miss a trade if it doesn't meet strict entry requirements. Am making less trades overall, but this figure is somewhat covering up the fact that these problems are still very prevalent.
(2) With the low floats getting upside momentum recently (even when they look like they're toast), focus on the long side, and almost completely ignore short side.
(3) Take profits quickly. Even on a home run idea (say PRKR) take half off ASAP. Given my small account I MUST do this to reduce risk. It is highly likely that will get a chance to put the trade back on at least once.

Sunday, 17 July 2016

Trading Review: 07-15-2016






Gross PnL: +$278.

After Commissions: +$230.

I was really happy with this day. The short SPU trade could have easily been a blow-up without the hard stop in. It's really nice to see cutting losses short paying off. Unfortunately I was away from computer, so there was no way to consider flipping long.
Eventually I tried to flip SPU long, and this turned out to be a good idea; but I had a bit of fomo with entry (I think), so it wasn't a perfect entry - and ended up taking the appropriate stop-loss.

I'm not super happy with my original KURA entry (directed somewhat by fomo and a bit of a chase, with bad risk-reward), but I'm really happy with how I managed the whole trade idea. Was focused on taking profits quickly and putting position back on. If trading from a larger account, would have been trading around a core rather than the full position, and it would have rewarded nicely.

SPU:





























KURA:

Trading Review: 07-14-2016

 Gross PnL: +$287.

After Commssions: +$266.

I'm not really sure how I feel about these trades - just scalps, but it's very hard to quantify the risk-reward, especially given the high probability nature of it. The ideal scenario is that these trades are trades around a core, which is established lower; to help lock some profit in - and hence reduce risk. In this case I narrowly missed my buy before the breakout; but could still see edge in scalping a small portion of the move, by providing liquidity. On a 5c spread with massive volume it is very easy to take 10c. Very important not to get greedy mind you, because the edge is in the high probability nature, rather than holding for the full move (because you would need a wide stop-loss if holding for the full move).
All this being said, I need to put in some work to understand the nuances of a play like this, as it is somewhat different to the way I usually trade.


SPU:

Trading Review: 08-08-2016





Gross PnL: -$1279.

After Commissions: -$1290.

A blow-up day, really disappointing after stringing together a tonne of positive days. This was a big factor in the blow-up (and not taking the stop). The stock moved very quickly against my short past my stop, so I was basically sitting there thinking that I had wiped out a few weeks grinding. It then pulled in and offered a "reasonable exit" - it was still a big loss, but by that point "hope" had set in... Poor trading.
I remember thinking that if I was to get long, this was the spot and risk 10-20c. Ironically if I had taken my chunky loss and flipped position I would have easily made it back on the next push, where I was margined out.

Interestingly, had a similar scenario a few trading days later - I had my hard stop-loss in and it was taken easily, no stress. Slightly bigger loss than should have been but all good.

The other important thing to note is that although I don't think my trade idea was very good (based on various reasons), that has nothing to do with the blow-up.

DGLY:

Thursday, 7 July 2016

Trading Review: 07-07-2016





Gross PnL: +$192.

After Commissions: +$164.

Really frustrated with shitty brokerage. Won't let me route to an exchange (seemingly randomly) and therefore I aren't sitting on the order book; and therefore I aren't providing liquidity (or getting super good liquidity providing entries). Every ticket today was a liquidity providing ticket, but was withheld and then marketed when the offer/bid came to better than or same as my price. Had to stop attempting to scalp because the edge I had was gone with no liquidity providing.

Narrowly missed the long on LEDS at $4.70. Spread was like 40c, so no point taking it at market. Obviously hindsight it would have worked, but was correct decision at the time.
The scalps I made were definitely fomo driven, but were also structured and executed pretty good to maximise probability of success. Indeed, they never really gave me any troubles.

LEDS set up later in the day for a super clean trend trade long, but by that time the buying power was limited; so I couldn't partake with enough size to warrant making the trade. Another potential home run trade missed, but it's good for me to get rid of all this fomo surrounding missing home run trades. Slowly developing the right attitude to be comfortable missing big trades if they aren't fulfilling all requirements, example being in the morning on the long. When the brokerage forces me to miss out on one, you start getting used to watching them, instead of getting excited about them.

Preparation: 7/10
Patience: 6/10 (really patient and no fomo missing the home run trade, but the scalps weren't the greatest)
Risk-reward: 5/10
Discipline: 6/10
Flexibility: 7/10
Greed: 8/10
Over-trading: 8/10 (the scalps were somewhat over-trading, but really happy that I identified when to stop)

LEDS:

Trading Review: 07-06-2016






Gross PnL: +$116.

After Commissions: +$103.  Provided liquidity on all trades today and the difference was notable.

No real notable trades today. Both were small time scalps, although both far exceeded my target expectations. That doesn't change that fact that I was probably right to take profit quickly, none of them were A+ trades.
MGT looks good in hindsight when you look at the chart, but I wasn't super happy about the trade, felt that it was somewhat of a chase. This is part of the reason for not pushing the boundaries on the profit target, which I am happy enough with. Yesterday I made a similar mistake with VBLT, which was not having the offer (to short) in on the open, when I had planned to chase it a little lower. In this case on MGT I didn't make this mistake, but my bid (for the long) was narrowly missed.
VBLT, identical trade to yesterday, again just a small time scalp - where I got filled at the high. One note on VBLT is that I had a little more room to be greedy because I got filled at the high. yesterday when I adjusted my expectations as a result of the poor entry, it was the correct thing to do. Today I got the good entry, so should have kept expectations somewhat high - the trade literally never gave me any trouble.

Preparation: 7/10
Patience: 7/10
Risk-reward: 5/10 (this will likely continue to stay poor while I do small time scalps).
Discipline: 7/10
Flexibility: 6/10
Greed: 8/10
Over-trading: 8/10 (this would be a 9, but not so sure about the MGT trade, perhaps a bit impulsive).

MGT:





























VBLT:

Wednesday, 6 July 2016

Trading Review: 07-05-2016





Gross PnL: +$48.

After Commissions: +$33.

Super quiet day, just the scalp on VBLT. Entry was a bit of a shame, could have been a $100 scalp; but at the time I was pretty happy with it. I spent a lot of time trying to get a better fill and failed, so that's one reason for being happy enough. After the small move against my trade I adjusted my expectations appropriately as well.
Only comment about the trade is that if I was going to do a micro chase lower I probably should have been trying harder to get a fill on the open.

There was a monster trade today that I missed, the kinda of stuff that makes the daily grind worthwhile. I tried to get long BGI at $1.70(ish), narrowly missed fill which is fine. I expected it to have a monster volatility halt type move - and then turn into a monster short opportunity. I had shorts on it as it rallied past $2; then the halt came and it gapped to $5, and the shorts were gone :( oh well it happens.
One thing I'm quite happy about is that I didn't chase the long trade, I could have made a better effort to get long, but my concern for chasing WAS justified (despite looking at the price action after).
Also really happy that I didn't short it prior to the halt, which is something that would have been tempting in the past.

Preparation: 7/10
Patience: 6/10
Risk-Reward: 5/10
Discipline: 8/10
Flexibility: 7/10
Greed: 9/10
Over-trading: 9/10

VBLT:





























BGI:

Tuesday, 5 July 2016

Trading Review: 07-01-2016





Gross PnL: +$58.

After Commissions: +$30.

Relatively happy with the day. OSUR was obviously a fantastic trade idea (that was minimised). There was some mistakes though:
I'm really happy with my entry/lack of fomo and discipline on OSUR. The mistake comes in where I didn't take the quick $100 on a pop (which is what I am currently doing to encourage consistency). I wanted $6.94, and the high was $6.89. This was greedy because $6.94 is slightly above yesterdays close. If I had taken that sale I would/should have got long again at the same price to rinse and repeat the trade. In that case, that trade then turns into a trade2hold for two reasons: (1) I already have locked in profits, so going for the big win is no longer against consistency guidelines, and (2) The price action changed to a grindy/trendy type action, and therefore it is reasonable to hold until the trend breaks (compared to the open when it's popping around).
It is important to note, that if I had taken that quick profit off the open, I would have been more comfortable to hold the trend trade until the trend broke.

And in general I'm just not happy with the AEZS trade. I have made a note on my trading notes that the entry was a chase by at least 5c. The other thing that is very obvious is that I clung onto the trade for as long as I could, when I could have easily got out $3.68+, (eventual exit was $3.64). This might seem nit-picky, but that's 4c+ on either side of the trade, which substantially changes it.
Imagine the scenario where I had entered $3.70-$3.75 (instead of $3.81), when it pops to $3.90 I am perfectly justified in selling there, AND if I don't sell there when I eventually stop myself out in the $3.68(ish range), it's a loss of less than $100 instead of $190.
As a side note, it's pretty obvious that my impatient entry and poor stopping out are probably correlated, so in future when I get a bad entry I should just sell out as soon as I can and correct myself.

Overall, should have been a really decent day, but unfortunately due to some (relatively minor) mistakes it wasn't.

Preparation: 7/10
Patience: 5/10
Risk-Reward: 5/10
Discipline: 6/10
Flexibility: 6/10 (Happy with my adjustment on OSUR to hold trade, unhappy with my decision not to sell pop on AEZS after showed me idea wasn't working)
Greed: 4/10 (feel like greed probably contributed to impatience on AEZS)
Over-trading: 8/10

OSUR:





























AEZS:

Friday, 1 July 2016

Trading Review: 06-30-2016






Gross PnL: -$172.

After Commissions: -$214.

Pretty rough day in general. I had some great ideas going into the day, and they all worked to some extent, and there was some opportunity for a home run trade as well. However, I was super picky/patient on the open and missed the entries. I was also a little slow on the trigger once my prices were reached. I would borderline say that I had a bit of hesitation putting trades on trying to be too patient. Am really not worried about this though, because this is the general direction I am trying to send my trading (to be more hesitant than spontaneous), so it's okay to have a day or two like this.

This created some level of tilt, and therefore I wasn't as picky on my other trades. TERP and MGT both should have had entries that were roughly 5-10c better. Not a big deal, but it adds up. In the case of TERP my entry should have been a little over 10c better, which completely changes the trade. MGT would have been about 3-5c better. Doesn't completely change the trade, but would have made the loss more negligible.

This kind of scenario (being too picky on the open and not picky enough during the day) is a sign of over-trading but it isn't something that creeps into my trading very much, although I see A LOT of other people talking about the bad trades they make during the lull. Also can clearly be seen that I didn't make too many tickets today.

Preparation: 7/10
Patience: 8/10
Risk-Reward: 5/10
Discipline: 8/10
Flexibility: 6/10
Greed: N/A (never got a chance to be greedy today)
Over-trading: 6/10

Patience - rating this high because I believe that although I was probably too patient, I'm not worried about it. Very general guide be less patience on the open, and more patient midday, and I got the wrong balance.
Risk-reward - entries that weren't perfect sort of made the risk-reward not quite as good.
Discipline - excellent discipline, cut them all off when I should have.
Flexibility - Flexibility was never really tested today. However, I would say that ESPR dynamic changed after the first test of the level that I had originally planned to short against, and I didn't really recognise it.

ESPR:





























MGT:





























TERP: