Trading Review: 10-20-2016

Gross PnL: -$20877.

Net PnL: -$21175.

Note: I kept the BTUUQ short overnight because I will be under the PDT tomorrow and won'be able to reshort. Strong conviction in $3-$4 range over next few days.

3/10 psych score at 10:30. Worth noting that at this point I was down around $3000-5000ish. Notes I have are: Tilted as fuck. Platform crashed straight after the open and I didn't have my setup saved. Also too aggressive and got squeezed on BTUUQ.
So this is the worst psych score I've given myself since I started taking them - so begs the question, why did I continue trading when I knew I was tilted? Whole point of this is to help avoid a day like this.
After this I took a few "good stops" (which were still bigger than they should have been) but point is, that would only serve to deplete my psych capital.

Completely wrecked, so much more than I needed to be as well. I had been feeling a sort of arrogance creeping in over the past week - just a result of being so consistent, but also a result of having a few days that should have been negative but broke rules to try and make money.

Two main causes of today:
(1) Going over max size.
(2) Not having a hard stop once got to max size.

A few contributing factors:
(1) Scaling over too wide range. Better to take stop and re-enter. This means that when I add at desired levels it is difficult to get anything size reduction for profit.
(2) Account size. I didn't withdraw immediately after depositing the money to meet margin call (had planned to at end of week). This meant I had more buying power than would be ideal - but obviously discipline would solve this issue anyway.
(3) Fighting trend too much. (Hindsight) it was obvious that BTUUQ would be a hard short once it got above morning range and yesterdays high. This somewhat relates to the prior arrogance.

Every time this happens it's looking at the situation and trying to work out how not to do it again - never seems to be as simple as DON'T BREAK RULES.
What this does tell me is that I am not ready to look to increase account size yet - it reinforces the importance of saving some backup money.

Improvement: 10-19-2016

Pretty good day in terms of discipline. Although I was slow to take stops; it's not that simple to take a tight stop on an OTC, so giving a little more room wasn't a huge problem.

Bigger problem today was greed. Whenever you start thinking about the next big figure it's time to lighten up and take a step away. This couldn't prove to be more true today.

Trading Review: 10-19-2016

Gross PnL: +$1785.

Net PnL: +$1320.

Preparation:
Patience:
Risk-Reward:
Discipline:
Flexibility:
Greed:
Over-trading:

7/10 psych score at 10:30. Notes: Good initial mindset. Greed creeping in. Have template to trade off, but confidence lacking.

So pretty weird day. I think I traded pretty well overall - but some smaller mistakes cost me a decent amount of profit.
At the peak I was up $7000, started thinking about the possibility of a 10k day... and then drew-down to where I ended the day. Part of the problem was that my "template" was off - OTCs panic out and bounce quite nicely (which I am not super familiar with). But also greed played a factor, by not being super picky with entries; and getting fomo for next leg day. Realistically I probably should have drew-down about $3000 from peak perhaps.
Side note: I tried to cover CBDS at the bottom; but was too slow on tape read and missed getting any fills - this also would have made a big difference. A good reminder that you have to be two steps ahead of the tape on OTCs, not just one like listed stocks.

Cool thing is that I likely get another go at it because they all recovered nicely! Should be more OTC action in the coming days. Other cool thing is that I didn't exceed max size, yet nearly had a 5k+ day.

TCCO - probably a bit of a miss; coulda shoulda woulda held some all day.

Improvement: 10-18-2016

Take stops. Don't exceed max size.

Two most important rules in trading. NOT HARD.

Trading Review: 10-18-2016

Gross PnL: +$946.

Net PnL: +$728.

Preparation:
Patience:
Risk-Reward:
Discipline:
Flexibility:
Greed:
Over-trading:

5/10 psych score at 10:30. Notes: It's only 10:30!? Got squeezed on NFLX after not taking a stop so not in greatest mindset.
Hindsight, this should have been about a 2-3 because I had got squeezed on NFLX, AND added above max size.

So to sum up today: Didn't take a stop on NFLX, took a big drawdown. Eventually took it off way too late. Got myself in the mindset to attempt to have a positive day. I was down about $1200 net, and there were some trades that I could have nailed (not exceeding max size) and it would have bought me back to approximately breakeven ish.
Instead I focused on BANC - went way over max size (at peak 6x max size).
Sooo yeah; simply not good enough.

Other big disappointment for the day was that I didn't get rid of NFLX when it gave me a chance. Although I narrowly missed covers on most of it by 5c - I took that approach that I sometimes fall into of: "oh it's confirming my idea" - instead of being in "recovery mode".

As a side note: I was somewhat trying to get size on the NFLX short a little too hard as well.

Overall could have been a pretty big day if I had taken the stop and reshorted where I added. Was some good opportunity around, and did a good job with the grinder setups.

Discipline Discipline Discipline...

Improvement: 10-17-2016

First day back after a while - so nothing that I have had in mind to concentrate on...

Discipline was good today.

Too much fear jumping in front of moves when it is still part of the plan - probably only thing worth noting.

Trading Review: 10-17-2016

Gross PnL: +$585.

Net PnL: +$302.

Preparation: 8/10
Patience: 8/10
Risk-Reward: 6/10
Discipline: 7/10
Flexibility: 8/10
Greed: 6/10
Over-trading: 8/10

8/10 psych score at 10:30. Notes: Very controlled with risk in mind. Perhaps a little greedy.

Frustrating day. Was well on track to have an approximately $1000 day but then RLJE was on CNBC. Some slight under-performance across the board by being too afraid to jump in front of things - but overall happy with outcome which was a good grinder day.

CTRV - At the peak was down around $900-$1000 on this. I was prepared to add short all the way to $3. It was the classic scenario of not adding short into the first push; thus not getting some good covers on the resulting pull - eventuating in a higher risk trade as holding the original trade continued to drawdown.
Eventual adds weren't the greatest either, as a result of being too scared to short strength - think I got somewhat lucky that the idea worked out.
Correct execution I would have made approximately $300-$800 and drawdown would have been around $600 (which still isn't great, but is better).

HAS - This was a pretty well executed idea, especially given how early I started shorting. Again marginal under-performance crept in. This time by not reshorting a pop immediately after I got my cover. Stop-loss was clear, and risk was really well defined - no reason not to - it gave an immediate rinse and repeat.
Think if I had caught this "rinse and repeat" I may have been more willing to stick with the idea back to vwap which worked out quite well eventually.

OMER - Unfortunate miss on the short side. Think when I eventually shorted I potentially should have been more aggressive - just as food for thought.

RLJE - The spike off CNBC looks like an obvious spot to reshort - however with a 2m float going on CNBC that's too dangerous.
Unfortunately I only got 2000 shares out of 6000 shares covered at the lows; so pretty unlucky with that CNBC shenanigans.

End of Year Goals Etc

Overall very happy with progress since opening new account. I would say I have exceeded any goals/reference point I had in mind.
That being said, I have probably taken more risks than I would have foreseen.

Going into the last 2.5 months want to set an idea for where I want to be:
(1) First, and most important goal is to stay consistent. Something in line with last months result would be ideal. 1-4 negative days each month for the rest of the year would be a massive win. I believe I have already set the basework for this to be possible; and don't think it's unrealistic at all! To be honest I think it is possible that I have a month where I don't have a single negative day.
So to achieve this goal, need to follow the frame-work I have set - also ensure I do actually take stop-losses. Marginally late is different to not at all!

(2) Pay off the rest of loan that took to open new account. This should be easily accomplished by the end of the year with minimal results. However, it is definitely priority.

(3) Somewhat result dependant: Looking to get some money set aside for likely account topups after some losses. Ideal scenario is to get enough money away so that it equals account balance (aka a complete blowup, wouldn't be end of world). Don't think it's realistic to achieve this by end of year; but can make some headway.

(4) Further ahead (probably next year): Look to slowly increase size of account, and therefore max sizes. By this point will have put in months of consistency so incrementally increasing size will be smart. Am only looking to do this after months of consistency - absolute profit is not the trigger to begin doing this.
Maximum size will be increased in proportion to account size - which will be increased by a fraction of profits. (i.e. 1/3 profits go to increasing account size, 1/3 to alternative investments, 1/3 to backup funds).

(5) With travel on the horizon, will be looking to pay off student loan incrementally throughout this. This is lowest priority, but can be done in conjunction with other goals slowly.

So: It all comes down to being consistent!

Weekly Review: 10-09-2016

Net PnL: +$394.

Bit of a disappointing week, especially coming off such a good month last month. Also missed one day trading due to waiting for funds to clear.

Highlights:

Monday: Probably an unavoidable losing day. However, it would have been 10x better if I had taken my stop-loss. I would estimate in the $0-negative $2000.
Best takeaway here is TAKE stop-losses when they rip in your face!

Tuesday: Pretty much perfect. Best takeaway is that if a stock is gapping down and have high conviction then need to be prepared to get a starter at unfavourable prices (but only a starter).

Wednesday: Pretty happy with this day. It wasn't the easiest of days. Good example of how I am slowly generating the ability to trade all day without fault. Some good midday trades this day.

Thursday: After a nasty trade need to take a moment before placing the next trade! A good day that turned neutral as a result of one tilted trade, resulting from a bad trade. Do not want to compound mistakes like this!

Overall:
Coming off such a big month was expecting to have a "humbling" week at some point. This is definitely a good week as far as forcing me to slow down.

Will do a general post on how I'm currently going, and goals for end of the year etc.

Improvement: 10-06-2016

Discipline: Did a good job of cutting losses today. Verged slightly on stubbornness on GNK, but not sure if it was stubbornness or good read lol...

Discipline with tilt: That was the big one today. COUP provided great trades trading against the $35 level and I wasn't able to participate. Soo... Not only did the tilt cost me $1000ish, it also caused me to potentially miss about $500-$1000 that I would have made trading around that level on the short side.
Big lesson I think is to pause after taking a bigger loss than anticipated. Don't immediately place next trade!

Trading Review: 10-06-2016

Gross PnL: +$584.

Net PnL: +$280.

Preparation:
Patience:
Risk-Reward:
Discipline:
Flexibility:
Greed:
Over-trading:

At 10:30 gave myself a 7/10 psych score. With note: Hasn't been the easiest trading day but have hit a good stop on size, and doing okay, so happy enough.
I also made a note around midday after I took a decent loss on the COUP long, then flipped it to a bad entry on the short: Ended up tilted after taking big loss and compounded it by taking bad entry on short. Don't want to leave here as can see the opportunity, but recognise the tilt so got to slow down.

Ultimately I didn't deserve to be profitable today. The two trades on COUP were pretty bad. The long was marginal (just straight to max size and then didn't cut it immediately), but the short was atrocious.
Kinda funny in a way because I would have been very happy with a 1k day vs a $280 day. Still happy to be profitable though. Whenever I can salvage something from a day that is a complete fuck-up it preserves mental capital, and (hopefully) allows me a bit more learning period.

One of best trades of the day was NUGT. I was sized in (2000 shares long) and only lost $286 when it didn't work. That's pretty amazing risk-reward, and also quite happy that I did cut the loss short.

GNK trade of the day from a profitability perspective... but I got lucky. You can see each time it makes a new high it fakes out, so I had planned to stop above the $8.05 fakeout, then when it got above the spread widened out and I could see obvious selling. Had I taken the stop it would have been roughly a $2k loss on net - so I got lucky.
One thing want to note about it. It became obvious that the stock needed a fakeout. I was carrying not the best average, and added slightly prematurely. Had I got good entry on adds/most of entries it would have been an amazing trade.
Unfortunately covered all GNK into first wash. I expected another wash lower, but wanted to lock in profitable day.

Improvement: 10-05-2016

Discipline: Really happy with the way I took the REN stop-loss today. It was a decent loss on that particular trade, and put me in a great position to reshort it (if I chose to). Game changing decision - would have been a big loss if hadn't taken the loss.

Other note: It was the perfect place to stop. Sometimes when I am looking to focus on taking stops I take them prematurely. This wasn't the case here.

Trading Review: 10-05-2016

Gross PnL: +$665.

Net PnL: +$435. Took a lot of borrows on stocks today that I didn't really capitalise on.

Preparation: 7/10
Patience: 7/10
Risk-Reward: 6/10
Discipline: 7/10
Flexibility: 6/10
Greed: 6/10
Over-trading: 6/10

6/10 psych rating at 10:30. Bit frustrated, took a decent loss on NUGT. And REN stressful to trade, but fully willing to hit it.

Overall a really solid day that was shaping up to be a massive day - but forced to take a stop-loss on REN that turned it into a grinder day. Perfect stop-loss because REN went higher, but just frustrating.
Super happy that I took the stop-loss.

Was also feeling extremely tired and needed a break - really struggled to trade even as long as I did. If I had traded all day I think I would have had a really profitable day. REN offered a reshort at highs, STZ wasn't fully capitalised on, CRM wasn't fully capitalised in + there was opportunities that I didn't trade at all.
Would have been a great day without needing a break - but overall too happy to lock in a grinder to complain too much.

Improvement: 10-04-2016

Discipline: Had a spot and was ready to cut the trade on NVFY today - it's an improvement but recent loss also fresh in mind. Need to continue this attitude.

Trading Review: 10-04-2016

Gross PnL: +$4549.

Net PnL: +$4269.

Preparation:7/10
Patience:6/10
Risk-Reward:6/10
Discipline:6/10
Flexibility:7/10
Greed:6/10
Over-trading:6/10

7/10 psych rating at 10:30. Made some pretty good decisions to lower risk. Perhaps a little tilted from missing some big trades but whatever.

Bit of a frustrating day. Had 2 high conviction setups lined up (NVFY, NTNX), and a decent setup lined up (SMMT) but missed the high conviction setups which dropped too quickly - and both would have been monster trades. They didn't give good risk-reward entries (at least initially) so it's fine to miss them though. If they had behaved along with SMMT it could have easily been a 10k+ day which is kinda cool.

Something worth noting - a minor mistake in execution. Off the open I planned to trade SMMT with up to 1000 shares (this was later increased to 2000 when it behaved), and NVFY with 4000 shares, and NTNX with 500 shares.
I put a "starter" on SMMT of 300 shares at the opening price - which literally doesn't make sense for a few reasons: (1) I had higher conviction in NVFY/NTNX, I would have been comfortable being squeezed on a starter position. (2) SMMT was day 1, thus higher risk of spike and subsequent continued trend.
Starter should only be about 1/5th size, so 300 was too large - but overall point still stands.

As a side note: I would have hammered in short on NVFY on the pop at around 9:50am if it hadn't behaved so weirdly yesterday.

When trading NVFY I got faked out at a relative peak. My thought process at this point in time was that it was either the spot to add (and I did have more bullets), or the spot to stop-out. I think this was a mistake - stop should have been $4.60 above the morning pop. Being tired clouded my judgement, and think I would have been more aggressive if it weren't for yesterday.

Improvement: 10-03-2016

Discipline on taking stops: To understand why have been struggling to take stops need to dig deeper into it.

I had zero problem hitting NTNX if I was wrong today. I also had zero problem hitting NVFY on the long side when I was immediately proven wrong. So what was it about the short NVFY that I struggled to hit my stop...

As NVFY began to rip, I was looking at it, thinking I will prepare for a potential stuff move over the high ($4.20), so my stop is $4.41, and I contemplated putting in a hard stop there. At the time I thought I would take a decent loss if I was hit - indeed accounting for slippage it would be around $4.50 stop-out which would be a loss of around $2000.
I was somewhat concerned about the possibility of the stock stopping at the premarket high ($4.80) and not really offering a re-entry. It is worth noting that in the end that particular move played out as a "stuff" of the premarket high.

So as the price came up to $4.40 it had literally skipped up, was moving very quickly - this gave me the psych mindset of "I'll just give it a little longer" and next thing it was $4.60 and about to halt by which point it didn't make sense to stop-out any more.

A comparable example, which could really rip my face off. A pharma stock has news midday against me. I would have a moments notice to take my stop before the volatility halt - but there would be enough time. Pausing would completely ruin it.

However, if that happened on a big stock I probably would hit it (most likely). Think the problem lies in positions that I have a bit of conviction in - where giving it a chance to fake-out does make sense.

Ultimately I think the solution is to place a hard-stop when a "conviction" position begins to go against me, I realise that I've said this before. But if the position has slipped away from my profit targets, I can easily put in a stop and then cancel it when the risk of being stopped is over.

Trading Review: 10-03-2016

Gross PnL: -$4329.

Net PnL: -$4590.

Preparation: 6/10
Patience: 4/10
Risk-Reward: 7/10
Discipline: 4/10
Flexibility: 4/10
Greed: 4/10
Over-trading: 6/10

5/10 psych rating. Notes: Getting ripped on NVFY but prepared to hit it according to plan.

Sooo the above isn't quite true - it's because I missed taking my stop that I had to adjust my plan.

NTNX should provide some decent opportunity over the coming days, definitely under traded it. Opening wash to support was clean, midday parabolic was clean, vwap bounce late day was clean.

Lost money short NVFY, then it literally dropped the moment I put in my long orders, then lost money on the short side again. I think the long side was completely avoidable - purely because I didn't give it quite enough time. So there's +$830 to pnl.
So I didn't take a stop that I had planned to on NVFY short. At first glance it may appear that being stubborn would have rewarded me. In reality the play was to take the stop, then re-establish the position.

Overall, I think trading "correctly" I would have still lost money today, but it would have been in the range of $0 to -$2000, and I would have kept trading throughout the day and potentially nailed a few more moves on other things to fight for a profitable day.

Having just done my monthly review, today was by far more difficult than any days last month.

But really got to get this stop thing in order - will go through it in "improvement post".

Monthly Review: September

Net PnL: +$34729.

Monster month and overall a real game changer. 17/19 positive days for the month, but dig a little deeper and it's not quite that good. 3 positive weeks and one break-even week (had both negative days that week).

A few new things introduced this month:
(1) 10:30am psychological check. Simply a self check on where I am in terms of my psychological capital for the day. Still developing this, but it seems to make a little difference - and is more importantly there to hopefully catch me the day that I definitely shouldn't keep trading.
(2) Went through my methodology and redefined it (as it's developed over time). Did this about 1/3 of the way through the month, and really happy with the results. Simply defining it helped ensure concise trades.
(3) Fixed max size. Prior to this month I had been trading with allowing 2x max size if it was a pre-mediated trade. This month I expanded that max size to a lot more - and it didn't work! It nearly resulted in a blow-up. So there's nothing wrong with "only" 2x max size for a high conviction setup.

Max sizes as they currently stand are:
$2-$10 -- 2000 shares.
$10-$20 -- 1000 shares.
$20-$30 -- 800 shares.
$30-$70 -- 500 shares.
$70+
ATR: 5+ -- 300 shares.
          <4 --500 shares.

Digger deeper into some of the key days.
(1) Nearly had 1 blow-up day. This turned into a $5000 day (28th).
(2) On the 27th I was sized into a trade, and miraculously realising it wasn't working about 10 minutes before a big swing in price. Would like to have think I would have taken stop when it triggered... But could have been very nasty - if the 28th lack of stop taking is anything to go by.
(3) 23rd my $11k day. Hindsight, I was trading this with too much size and it should have been around $4-$5k.
(4) 22nd. Would have been a negative day from trading on AVXL, was lucky SAEX came along - and worked... Was nearly a -7k day.
(5) 16th One of my losing days. Correct implementation of my methodology would have resulted in a roughly breakeven day.
(6) 14th Other losing day, would have been a winning day with correct implementation of methodology.

So to sum up: A lot of luck, narrowly avoided some big losses. Good to have a solid winning month to steer me in right direction though. Having strung together a really solid month psychological capital is high. This is really good, because with correct implementation of my methodology I shouldn't really have had a single losing day this month - this month gives me the ability to execute correctly in the coming month.

Trading Review: 09-30-2016

Gross PnL: +$122.

Net PnL: +$94.

Preparation: 6/10
Patience: 7/10
Risk-Reward: 6/10
Discipline: 6/10
Flexibility: 6/10
Greed:6/10
Over-trading:6/10

5/10 psych rating at 10:30. Bit frustrated "grinding day" and sitting at breakeven.

Ideally would have been a little bit more profitable today, but had the wrong read with slightly incorrect position size on VEC so got punished for that. All trades were pretty small so I lived out plan of being a grinder day which I'm quite happy about.

Coming into the market open had no concrete plans to execute on, so all ideas were reactionary/secondary. Considering this I think I did quite well.

ZAIS probably the big miss of the day were I kept size small, and covered quickly. Was really focused on scaling on it to control risk, but it eventually gave a nicer fader after a pretty small pop.

Really happy with how I executed on some trade. QCOM and COST felt like I got pretty squeezed on them, when in reality/hindsight given the moves I managed them pretty well. I narrowly missed and add on COST at the high which would have made the trade substantially better.