FX Summary: 06-01-2015

EUR/USD: Daily FX SSI is -1.83. The recent down move has probably been the most concerning for my bias that the EURUSD has bottomed for the medium term. A retest of the 1.05 area, while would present a good short term opportunity for buying support would probably invalidate the possibility of a medium term bottom.
1.10-1.11 is a very significant level back over would present a continuation of the uptrend and give a buying opportunity with a stop-loss below.
Buying/Shorting a breakout from Mondays range and closing position on Friday has an edge at the moment, so I am happy to join this long should that setup occur, particularly if it involves the 1.10 level.

EUR/JPY: DailyFX SSI is -1.82. This is an obvious choice for long if I continue to ride the USD/JPY trend long, and am still long biased on EUR/USD. The move off the lows with little retracement (roughly a 35% retracement, versus the EURUSD pulling back about 60%) is indicative of strength and EUR/JPY is a very trendy pair. Unfortunately the consolidation isn't tight enough to provide a low risk entry buying the breakout without getting a little more detailed. So will use a similar strategy buying breakout of Monday's range, OR
buying a dip towards 133.50.

USD/JPY: Am still long 1/10th of a position on this. While I think it is getting over-extended I will hold the 1/10th until it is stopped out below 122, or for at least another week.
I would like to re-buy. But to rebuy I would need to see 122 hold on a retest or further consolidation here.

GBP.JPY: 190 is a serious level here and has run a long way into the level so due for a pull-back, perhaps sub 188 but plenty of room to 182-185. A pullback to say 188 and then grind up to 190 would setup VERY nicely for a breakout... But it needs more time to setup.
Looking at the weekly chart you can see the positive autocorrelation is very strong at the moment (on a weekly basis) so I don't really want to fight the trend and short against 190... But I think the RR favours a short into 190, stop either above 190 or above 190.50 for a move to 185-188 and holding period of roughly 3 weeks.
A nice hedge for any long EURJPY or USDJPY long.

AUD.USD: Trend is definitely down... But it hasn't set up for a continuation and when you look at the magnitude of the move it is probably due for a move up, even just to 79c. To me it's a better setup to the NZDUSD long.

USD/CAD: A basic breakdown from range and then re-enter range and get rejected from range type of setup. The SSI is -1.5 which I don't like, but I like the way it has failed to get back within the range so far, and I like how it was really strong despite oil not really being that strong. Just got executed on short at 1.2489, stoploss 1.2531.

GBP/AUD: Another short GBP long AUD setup. Looking to get a low risk short into 2.0000 a very significant level, catch a move back to 1.9750 or lower.