7:53: Pretty intense cold shower this morning. Feeling all sleepy, quite tired- ahh nice hot shower. Them boom, ohh that's cold. Was good! First day on increased size. Want to keep everything completely normal!
Frustratingly, because the NZD has gone down quite a bit I am only $500 away from PDT - which is one of the factors I identified as a contributor to my stubbornness. So will be mindful of this, and focus on never drawing down there in the first place.
8:11: Time to being initiating a short swing in NUGT. Want to pick up a put spread for about a month out. Think within a month it could easily be $35 (even if gold doesn't breakdown there should be some benefit to leverage decay). So will work around the idea of establish a 50/35 put spread. However, I intend to piece into the position slowly, and will sell the 45 puts expiring this week, then 40s for next week - to try and collect as much credit as possible without ruining the trade. Also want to learn from the NFLX/TSLA trades, around the open is a sellers market, after is a buyers market - so I have selected the prices I'm prepared to pay/sell and will (at least until noon) stick to those prices.
The other reason I am prepared to attempt to sell closer ones to collect slightly more premium is because if it goes there that quickly I should make money trading it. If I was to flat out do the purchase the 50/35 spread it would cost around $4.80/$1.20 - good to record that to see if I can better it.
8:44: A short meditation of 10 minutes. Seems to be a moment when I know I'm relaxed enough.
8:45: So thinking about the increase in size. It would be relatively confidence crushing to hit max draw-down on first day of increased size, so really want to be mindful of that! Keep stubbornness in check, while at the same time not overcommitting to not being stubborn. - get that sweet spot.
9:51: Little bit jumpy, not much on and may be trying to force.
10:10: Have been bottom fishing on VRX all morning - now on third attempt. Haven't been full size, but down $250 currently. This is a little bit much. Need a reminder when counter-trend trading to focus on buying new lows, selling pops, until it reverses trend by getting above vwap.
10:36: ENDP which I took a reasonable stop on (-132) a reminder to piece into positions over time, locking in some risk and adding size as they confirm.
11:15: Reminder that focus now becomes finding good prices (buy support, sell resistance) rather than joining trends/momo, unless they are super clean.
11:32: Retried VRX. Was a silly idea. About due for a nap. Need to refocus and forget about somewhat tough morning.
11:47: About done for the day, have one trade left on that's pursuing for decent profit, and that's NUGT. But am sensing that I am be falling into the trap of target trading. Very rough day, and have mis-traded a few setups. Kinda annoying to have a day like this the day after I increase my size.
11:51: Compared with other days, it's not 100% clear what I have done wrong... So recapping a little now may be worth it: (1) Should have been buying new lows within downtrends, (2) Getting size a little quickly, and so not having flexibility. (3) In line with those two, not taking profits quick enough has been a crusher today.
If I had done 1 and 2 then (3) taking some profits quickly is really beneficial to lock in risk. ENDP I would have been able to recycle position a little, despite it holding below a key level. And VRX, the bg loser of the day, I tried the long 3 times on the open, then I finally nailed it and had a worse average than I should have. If I had been less hasty on the adds I would have only had one or two trades on it max, for less net loss, and then had a better average on the eventual move that I caught (and hence would have managed to lock in quite a bit, whereas I narrowly missed taking some sales).
11:57: All this being said, can be too harsh. But I would estimate based on price action that I would be down around $50 on ENDP (max) and about down about 0-100ish on VRX if I had traded correctly.
1:16: On break missed the easiest TSLA long ever. But shouldn't get too stressed about it. Gold is back down again and has stopped perking up, but NUGT still perking, so going to have the complicated stop plan again of not stopping on the NUGT perk if gold doesn't confirm.
VRX would have been a great scalp against the level at the low.
DIS I was stopped at the low. I may or may not have added at the low instead of stopping, not 100% sure on that one.
Bring all this up just to show that there has been some volatility in the past hour that I could have taken advantage of. The other thing is that they were very clean opportunities - buying things as they retest the lows, buying a super super clean breakout.
1:23: VRX either rejects here and goes back to lows, or gets over vwap and goes to high of day (similar to TSLA the other day, had that stupid second move down). I will take this trade as a binary trade if it gets over vwap - then be done for the day no matter what the outcome - still have to manage NUGT trade as well of course.
1:30: Definitely being tempted by target trading here, but I have two good trades on with potential for big rewards, so happy to let them ride.
1:30: Gold making new low while NUGT still in that recent consolidation near the high. Crazy stuff, could see a serious unwind!
1:32: Think it might be worth swing some VRX (just for a gap up, not long term), so will look to hold 1/3 or 1/6 depending on what kind of prices we get into the close. To make a difinitive choice now, I will sell if it gets to $31 by end of day, otherwise will hold for gapper so long as holds trend.
1:35: I had my final add on NUGT at 58.70 or something. Hindsight I should have covered the $0.70 dip (say cover for 50c) and then looked to rinse and repeat it a couple of times. Would have been a nice way to protect position and cover risk.
1:45: Interesting food for thought. My TSLA calls traded down to 20c today, which at my sale of 89c for one of them just before is a 4R trade, obviously wouldn't have got it right at the bottom, but still. The important takeaway here is that on my trades on the big board stocks I usually have quite high conviction, so shouldn't let one days action scare me away. Therefore I should almost always be adding a little bit when the risk-reward gets better, and therefore always be positioned for an add at a better price.
2:07: Looks like I got stuffed on VRX and should be going back to lows. Trying to think through the trade now that it's done... Am I happy with the trade? One thing that comes to mind is that it didn't work in the morning, which could suggest range bound price action, and that stop-loss could have been trailed when it tried to make a new high and couldn't (which in the end turned out to be a lower high on a trend turn). But overall good risk-reward trade, I just think I hadn't read the parameters of the trade right.
So that's max drawdown for today, depending on how the NUGT trade goes. Very disappointing, when you consider that there were trades out there that could have easily made some money in.
2:26: Was super tempted to break rules just then and add to NUGT short. Looks really nice on the chart... But trading is about following your rules - and that's how you judge trading success.
2:38: NUGT is looking like an obvious long if it breaks high. Question is, do I want to take it? The answer is definitely no if gold doesn't confirm, but what if it does? It's almost certinaly going to squeeze above (at least temporarily).
2:41: If this NUGT move turns out to be a stuff (tonnes of volume) I will double my short position with a tight stop-loss. Just a case of knowing when to break rules, thinking about it an advance and making it as an unemotional decision. Thus far NUGT has had a lot of volume but gold hasn't confirmed. The confirmation for me to add to NUGT should would be if gold makes a new low (seeing as it's knocking on the low roughly now).
2:53: Yep stuff move confirmed so added as per plan. Tight stop-loss is in. As an aside, this is the general mistakes I've been making today is not entering when the risk is low. Here it actually looks like I'll be stopped, but the risk is well defined, and low.
3:00 Just thought I would mention I only added a half more, not a double. Still like the trade, but yeah...
3:04: Stopped on NUGT and done for day.
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