A lot of the planned trade ideas were triggered early in the week. In the end it turned out I wasn't 100% comfortable with the execution plans I had set. Felt that risk was too wide, whereas when I designed the system I had in mind that I would like tight risk (risking say 30-70 pips). As a result I felt a tendency to try and improve entry price once trigger was given, and as a result missed two good trades.
Then the one trade I anticipated early resulted in a good entry, and much better risk-reward wise.
Usually a break in following the system is bad practice, however I am still in the process of working the system to how it suits me, so it's okay. Below is the mid-week charts, long with entries, stops and targets, and commentary:
Initial thoughts re that it may be beneficial to trail stop-loss by the bollinger band (plus a bit for a spike). Also the way BB's widen on news events which can cause the stop-hunt that I like to see, isn't ideal for entry system.
EURUSD: This is the one I anticipated early. Entered short at 1.1560, with a stop at 1.1624 (above the high, and targeting 1.1313. This gives an R-multiple of around 4x, and is by far the best trade in terms of risk-reward.
It is interesting to note that it has literally been straight in my favour, and provided you were patient for entry on fakeout of level (1.1460-1.1530) it was an extremely easy trade.
Had I not anticipated entry, the correct entry would be 1.1500, so the trade would be slightly in my favour currently and only offer an R multiple of around 2x.
The other thing for consideration is that entry wouldn't have been improved on too much by waiting and entering on a pop (like EURJPY would have been considerably).
EURJPY: This is the one that I waited for the signal, and took the wide risk. Thus far the trade is working okay, with price hanging around over/under entry. Entry: 122.82, stop 121.55, target 125.44. So on this trade getting a 2x R multiple.
This trade could have been improved immensely by waiting for a pull-back and would have ended up offering a 4x R multiple. All that being said, this is the only one out of the 4 trades that have triggered that is "mucking around" so it could very well be the case that while it offered a pullback, it offered one because the rebound hasn't been strong.
Time will tell, and even if this one doesn't work, doesn't mean that shouldn't enter on a pullback.
USDCAD: Literally straight up from the fakeout. That being said, is somewhat the result of oils decline. Risk-reward on the chase makes sense though, assuming a far-out target. That being said, USDCAD was overdue for a big rally.
Again, chase entry with a trailed stop would have worked, obviously didn't get a fill when I bidded on dips.
GBPUSD: Similar to USDCAD. Missed the entry because I didn't chase. The entry would be a little harder to anticipate on this one (say compared to the eurusd), but pretty clean once it got below the 20MA.
USDCHF: I completely missed this one. Very clean if you were solely purchasing it once it got back above the level. As it stands though it has barely given the signal to get long accordingly to my system... Hmmmm...
AUDJPY: As it stands I don't really like this one for a few reasons (audusd looks like a short, already long eurjpy, and the news flow is extremely negative on aud).However, unlikely the others it's interesting to note that it didn't really accelerate into/below the level; thus arguably no stops triggered below 80.00, and therefore trade thesis invalidated(?)
NZDUSD: Didn't get above the 0.7050 level. In fact it literally only got 3 pips above it, which ended up having exactly the same high. Could have risked 10 pips there for a 150 pip gain... Anyway what's particularly interesting about that is 0.6900, so anything above that could be considered a fakeout.
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