Bias/Trade Idea will come from a variety of factors - which aren't worth going into.
Trade Management: This is an important part of my risk control.
(1) Never go full size immediately. This has three effects. First is that it gives me a chance to think through the position a little more if there is any spontaneous moment in the entry. Second, I don't know exactly where the best entry will be so by scaling I increase my probability of success on trade (can accept a wider price range, rather than one entry and a stop-out). Finally, if my idea is confirmed I can always add higher.
(2) A hard stop-loss is placed the moment I go full size. This is self explanatory. As a guide the goal is to add the last half once stop-loss is clear and obvious.
(3) Always have orders out to cover some risk at acceptable spots. Should be looking in the range of 0.5-2R for these spots. The goal is usually to get the sale back on, because thesis is in tact.
(4) If a trade idea gave more trouble than expected, without hitting the stop, then get rid of at least half the position on favourable price action (i.e. approximately breakeven). Can always add it back at better prices, which in my experiences happens every time (if it gave more trouble than expected). Note: I have a tendency to view the favourable move as confirmation, but it's usually not.
(5) If I want to hold for a decent move, but also want to add to a position on retracements; I lower position to 1/3 or less to ensure that enough profit is locked in, so that I am comfortable adding on retracements (where I have given up unrealised profit).
Open:
(1) At this stage of the day risk is quite wide so it is important for me to piece into trades rather than go in quickly.
(2) If I look to get long it will be around a support level (pre-market or from daily). Vice versa for short.
(3) ATR will play a role in determining how far a stock can move, but given the stocks I trade are usually news driven this isn't concrete.
(4) While some stocks will have a very trendy opening drive. I am not looking to trend trade at all for the first 30 minutes. In general a higher high is a shorting opportunity (unless the stock has proven that it's having an opening trend, which will be notable by it's consistency). I am not interested in trying to participate in an opening trend.
(5) During this first 30-60 minutes buying a stock near the low of the day, and shorting near the high of the day has an edge.
(6) I should always be using the high of day or low of day to scale into any trade ideas I have. VWAP is not a useful indicator at this stage of the day.
(7) Again, slowly piece into trades and cover risk quickly.
(8) Because stocks don't really trend at this time of the day, it isn't unreasonable to expect a stock to have an opening pop, test the opening price again, then go back to the high.
(9) Remember that stocks tend to test levels - so you can ruin a perfect idea by not waiting for the level test. I have a tendency to use vwap as the zone too early, instead of levels. The exclusion to this is the low float crappers were it is obvious that the herd is toast.
After Open 10:30 Onwards: Trend Trading vs Counter-Trend Trading.
(1) I have decided to stop taking breakout trades for the most part. My methodology/psychology I've built isn't designed for them. Sometimes I may add to a winner on them (1/4) or initiate a chaser position on them (1/4).
(2) On a stock that I have decided is trending I will look to buy dips with vwap as a guide for risk. Scale into entry as normal, and flip some to cover risk ASAP. Note that vwap is only the general area, can go slightly below or whatever depending on levels. Vice versa for shorts. Note that not really interesting in chasing strength, even though I have determined the stock is trending. At this stage, am interested in holding 1/4 for a decent move.
(3) On a stock below vwap am only interested in taking it for scalps back to vwap (vice versa for shorts).
(4) Low of day can be used as a guide for long, so long as it is the first or second test, and is seemingly over-extended into the level. Note that it can breach the low, want to scale with roughly 20% of ATR below the low in mind. Vice versa for shorts.
(5) Finally, am interested in big flushes or parabolics. This is the hardest trade to control risk on. Want to have a level in mind to scale around. It can go way through though, and want to add to max size using tape reading (if possible). The single best way to control risk on this trade is to cover risk on any pull, and to ensure that always have bullets available for adds (i.e. scale over large range and reduce size quickly). Sometimes this can turn into a big trade if you catch a reversal. However, unless combined with a nice daily setup can't even really expect a test of vwap - be sure to have realistic expectations.
Why I Trade This Way Advantages vs Disadvantages:
(1) One of my strengths has always been trade ideas, and read on a situation. Waiting for a trade to prove me completely wrong before stopping suits this idea. So I want to manage entries/exits/stops to maximise probability of success. Stopping out on a small movement in price doesn't quite make sense.
(2) Have always struggled to re-do a trade if stopped the first time (like you would if you took a breakout trade with a tight stop). In the past it has led to me over-trading a range bound stock.
(3) Disadvantage is obviously that if a trade works to perfection may end up missing it. During fast markets (e.g. financial crisis or whatever), I will definitely adjust.
(4) A big advantage is that unless a stock goes in a straight line it is likely I will breakeven or make money on it, due to scalping around position aggressively to cover risk.
(5) General comments: I find that my worst loser (something I have been forced to "puke" out of before getting a scalp around) generally is of similar magnitude compared to winners. One would argue that the style of scaling in is setting up to have losers that are too big - but so long as stubbornness and max size is kept somewhat in check it's not too bad.
(6) If I execute right on my trade management/patience etc I should almost never have a losing day based on this style.
(7) Most of the time a stop is a "guide" rather than a hard stop (unless max size). While this works out to maximise probability of success. It can lead to stubbornness and bigger losers than should be. It also requires an open mind to read price action and realise when price action is proving an idea wrong. I do not seem to struggle with this too much.
No comments:
Post a Comment