FX Summary: 06-07-2015

EUR/USD: It seems reasonable to me to continue with bullish bias and the rest low around 1.08 could be considered a "higher low" and a slight speed up of the trend. However, the late day peak could be considered a "lower high". So basically it's middle of the range without exhibiting a clear bias. So long as it remains over 1.1000/1.1050 I favour buying dips... But there is no clear setup for me here YET.

EUR/JPY: Looking for a pullback to the breakout area from last week and then a hold. It is also coincidentally the 200MA. I usually wouldn't assign any significance to it, but as a confluence it is more important.
At this stage this move is a little large to chase without a solid consolidation here, however it could easily go to 150.00.

USD/JPY: Still the same as last week. Holding long, but think it is over-extended.

AUD/USD: Given the decent bounce from these levels last week I think it is still worth trying to fade this into 0.7550ish for a move potentially back to 80ish.

AUD/CAD: Possibly a nice alternative to AUDUSD setup and a nice hedge for short USDCAD. 94c is a serious level and a relatively range bounce pair so fading into 94c seems like a solid RR trade. It may not be a big moving pair over a large time frame... But its' average daily range is nearly 100 pips so it doesn't move quite big on an intraday basis.

USD/CAD: Still struggling to move higher and holding below the range so favour shorting heavily into 1.2550

CAD/JPY: Bit of a different one. But that 100.00 breakout looks nice so favour buying a dip towards 100.00 with a stoploss below. There doesn't appear to be a huge pickup in volatility though (except for during the breakout) so would prefer not to chase and get really solid good RR entry.

GBP/AUD: Short into 2.0050 again. Planing and simple. A consolidation here would put breakout in picture but so far I think it's too over-extended for that. If it pulls back to say 1.97 and then comes up on 2.0000 that would be a more reasonable breakout situation.

NZD/CHF: With the kiwi so weak recently it has opened up a trade based of the support from the CHF chaos earlier this year. Scale in based off 64c would be the plan.

Weekly Review: 06-07-2015

Back Account: -$4794.

Main Account (Swing): -$1216.

Main Account (Intraday): -$95.

Total: -$6105.

Didn't have a profitable day this week which is obviously disappointing... But it's not that bigger deal to be honest. Dropped sizes right back to very low and won't step up sizes again until I show consistency.

A couple of observations about this week:
(1) Solid job minimising magnitude of losses. On the back account the losses (Mon-Fri) went -2927, -1285, -244, -149, -189.
(2) Due to the losses I experienced a lack of confidence to jump in front of moves because I wanted to wait for "confirmation". This meant that I was chasing strength and weakness. Want to nip this habit in the butt quickly.
(3) I felt extremely fatigued this week for some reason. Quite often I would be up in the morning and then lapse discipline and/or make a poor trade later because I was tired. Have taken some steps in my personal life to help out with this. But should also consider napping halfway through the day.

FX Weekly Review: 06-07-2015

So the idea with this post is to go through the analysis posted last week on ideas generated and see how I performed and executed the plans throughout the week.

Brokerage: US$60.
+AU$2439.
-CAD387.
-YEN48,700.
-US$53.

EURUSD: Did exactly as expected! However I really struggled to execute on the plan because of the sudden movement of the break above 1.10. I didn't take the trade for this reason and for the reason that there was no obvious place to place the stop-loss. For the future, I think it may be worthwhile having a stop order in the system with smaller size and a 30 pip stop-loss (random, not assigned to level).
The same goes for EURJPY. The size of the moves would have each resulted in some really solid trades, even with reduced size.

GBP/JPY: I narrowly missed the short which came off a little bit. By no means a huge trade but I would have easily covered risk and then some if met. Tried the breakout over 190.00 but was narrowly stopped on a news wick. Really annoying breakout to try and get... But if you look at the daily that makes sense because of how overextended it already is.

USD/CAD: This worked out but it was difficult, hence the loss on the currency pair. 1.2550-1.2560 was the big level to watch but I used the hold lower around 1.2510-1.2520 to get short. This part of the trade was great! I then shorted the pop back to 1.2510 which worked out the first time but didn't work out the second time.
I think the lesson here is something that can go in the anti-playbook. The level created by the hold lower/higher within a trend is a minor level and the fact that it's being retested after a decent move lower is a bad sign and indicates a probability of testing the major level again.

GBP/AUD: Easily the trade of the week, including stock trades! Used 2.0000 as the spot to get short and applied size on the trade. It went immediately in my favour and I covered risk, and with about 65 pips in the money I held through news with sent it lower. Was holding a bit for around 193 or something so was stopped on that, but overall great.
The anti-playbook from USD.CAD appears here as well. On the day when GBP/AUD rallied about 300 pips I was stopped out roughly at the high, which is exactly where I should have been adding because 2.0050 was the major level not 2.0000. Good lesson reoccurring.

Trading Review: 06-03-2015

Main Account (Swing): -$551. Managed to get some shares on the pump and dump NUGN. It's a bit early but has been incredibly hard to get borrows so I think it's worth it getting in early. Based on how many times it has gone green to red and then been saved I expect there are quite a few shorts and it has room to squeeze up to $4.50+. I am prepared to add another 3000 shares (if I can get borrows) if it manages to get to just under $5. If that happens it will put quite a bit of pressure on... But given that it's a pump obviously a high probability.

Back Account: -$244. Much better day in terms of discipline and controlling risk but I still let it get a bit away from me. I was also still lacking the conviction to jump in front of moves. If I am concerned about jumping in front of moves just need to use smaller size.
Today I attempted to tweet all my trades/ideas... But it was a bit much at least on the open. However, after the open I think it worked quite well, so I will continue to do that.
Woke up like an absolute log and felt like a log throughout the entire morning so went to bed after 11am EST.

Trading Review: 06-02-2015

Main Account (Intraday): +$205.

Main Account (Swing): +$186.

Back Account: -$1285.

Another disappointing day. The setups were there in general but didn't really get them in a solid fashion. Again too much chasing (reacting too much to really short term price action), overtrading (by which I mean a lack of conviction) and a lack of confidence in putting positions on (waiting for "confirmation" but just ending up chasing).
I was a lot better with controlled losses etc though.
Was thinking about it, based on the too much chasing and the lack of confidence putting positions on... I think a possible solution to getting the confidence back is to only short at resistance and long at support. Instead of trying to look for confirmation and getting tricky about it.
Back account is now quite low which suits me fine because it will ensure I keep size down.

EKSO: Really one of the only solid trades for the day. Took it with the main account because back account didn't have access to otcs. Just a typical fraud report combined with OTC bounce play. Nailed the bottom, was faked out of last 1/3 of position before the move but that's okay. Possibly could have considered rebuying.

Trading Review: 06-01-2015

Back Account: -$2927. Another really poor day. Far too much lack of patience, fomo, controlling of risk, and lack of conviction in trades. Additionally have been hesitating to get into a trade waiting for "confirmation" and of course miss the trade.
Not quite the start I wanted to the month.
For tomorrow goals are:
(1) Control risk. Do not lose more than $200 on a single trade. Even if I really like a trade, provide liquidity and start into the trade smaller.
(2) Take profit quickly to ensure profits are locked in. Want to maximise probability of having a positive day.

FX Summary: 06-01-2015

EUR/USD: Daily FX SSI is -1.83. The recent down move has probably been the most concerning for my bias that the EURUSD has bottomed for the medium term. A retest of the 1.05 area, while would present a good short term opportunity for buying support would probably invalidate the possibility of a medium term bottom.
1.10-1.11 is a very significant level back over would present a continuation of the uptrend and give a buying opportunity with a stop-loss below.
Buying/Shorting a breakout from Mondays range and closing position on Friday has an edge at the moment, so I am happy to join this long should that setup occur, particularly if it involves the 1.10 level.

EUR/JPY: DailyFX SSI is -1.82. This is an obvious choice for long if I continue to ride the USD/JPY trend long, and am still long biased on EUR/USD. The move off the lows with little retracement (roughly a 35% retracement, versus the EURUSD pulling back about 60%) is indicative of strength and EUR/JPY is a very trendy pair. Unfortunately the consolidation isn't tight enough to provide a low risk entry buying the breakout without getting a little more detailed. So will use a similar strategy buying breakout of Monday's range, OR
buying a dip towards 133.50.

USD/JPY: Am still long 1/10th of a position on this. While I think it is getting over-extended I will hold the 1/10th until it is stopped out below 122, or for at least another week.
I would like to re-buy. But to rebuy I would need to see 122 hold on a retest or further consolidation here.

GBP.JPY: 190 is a serious level here and has run a long way into the level so due for a pull-back, perhaps sub 188 but plenty of room to 182-185. A pullback to say 188 and then grind up to 190 would setup VERY nicely for a breakout... But it needs more time to setup.
Looking at the weekly chart you can see the positive autocorrelation is very strong at the moment (on a weekly basis) so I don't really want to fight the trend and short against 190... But I think the RR favours a short into 190, stop either above 190 or above 190.50 for a move to 185-188 and holding period of roughly 3 weeks.
A nice hedge for any long EURJPY or USDJPY long.

AUD.USD: Trend is definitely down... But it hasn't set up for a continuation and when you look at the magnitude of the move it is probably due for a move up, even just to 79c. To me it's a better setup to the NZDUSD long.

USD/CAD: A basic breakdown from range and then re-enter range and get rejected from range type of setup. The SSI is -1.5 which I don't like, but I like the way it has failed to get back within the range so far, and I like how it was really strong despite oil not really being that strong. Just got executed on short at 1.2489, stoploss 1.2531.

GBP/AUD: Another short GBP long AUD setup. Looking to get a low risk short into 2.0000 a very significant level, catch a move back to 1.9750 or lower.