Sunday, 3 May 2015

Trading Review: 01-05-2015










Intraday Trading: -$369. Narrowly missed selling some oil into a push (which would have covered risk). This is in line with the general theme of the day which occurred in back account (more on that in back account writeup).
Bought into the first $59 push, was offering at first target $59.37 which was narrowly missed. Stopped below. Looks like oil will be back to range-bound for the coming few days.
























Swing Trades: -$204. Shorted VLTC at the end of the day, but is boxed overnight on my back account (which I will include in the back account totals for simplicity). The goal is to unbox into any morning push tomorrow and then ride it short for a swing down to near the recent lows. I actually initially shorted 2000 shares but decided to trim it a little, quite happy with this decision - correcting a mistake immediately that is. The stop will then be above that morning peak.

Back Account: -$635. Relatively happy with the day overall. I had a bunch of good ideas for trades, but gaps ruined the ideas, but I maintained my discipline and patience and waited for the opportunities. Additionally there was also a bunch of trades I narrowly missed entry on (being too patient waiting for prices) which is a good thing, rather have missed a trade than be a bad trade. These two combo's make for a frustrating day overall though.

Strengths:
(1) Patience waiting for right setups, despite narrowly missing multiple trade ideas. Missed BABA into $80 by a few cents (bounced over $1), missed TASR on open at $30 (low was $30.30ish, before rallying $3 on the day).
(2) Really good job of searching around for setups. Spent most of the day searching around, and eventually found LEAF, which was a great setup.
(3) Controlling risk (in general, this probably excludes ADXS to a certain extent).

Weakness:
(1) Too aggressive with first targets for management (VLTC, LEAF, CL, only just got met on TASR scalp, arguably ICLD). Need to remember that have to manage position on the first, easily predictable wave. The goal is for that part of the trade to be rinsed and repeated if need be.
(2) Accuracy of trades just wasn't there again (however I feel this is related to missing that first management spot). ICLD, VLTC would have been slightly net profitable if taken some off at first target.
(3) Implementation of level edge (CTB).

ADXS: The only real setup that I allowed a decent risk for. The gap up ruined the nice washout buy that I had originally planned, but pretty happy with this adjustment trade. The general setup was that it is due for a bounce, and IBB was bouncing and holding above vwap (confirmation). I was possibly too jumpy to get into the initial position (first arrow), but did a great job of adding to position (second arrow).
My original stop-loss was below $17.30, which is fine for the original position, but I feel like once it hit the double top and had the peak-out around $17.70 after the double top I should have trailed stop-loss to $17.50.
Did a good job of changing bias on this. Did not revisit the long idea because price action was telling a different story.























CTB: Given the size of the move on the day (4x ATR), size of retracement (from $36.18 to $38, over 1 ATR) and size of revision back to the lows without a decent bounce was setting up for a scalp against the lows. Given it's weakness this is a stock that you would want to be super patient for you entry on the long side and keep risk tight. However, this is probably the one stock that I wasn't. Entry was $36.33, and stop was $36.14 (filled $36.11, aka the low). This isn't exactly how the level edge is to be exploited... Stop should have been at least 0.10x ATR below the low, and with the coincidental round figure of $36 so close that would have been a nice spot (effectively a fakeout of the low, but held by round figure). This is all in hindsight of course, but that's a pretty typical setup... So disappointed with the way I traded it.























GLUU: Good job controlling risk on this one. Entered half position on the gearing, with an idea to add once it broke $7. This approach was taken to ensure that if $7 b/o failed (which it did) risk was controlled, but also so that if $7 b/o occurred average was better so size could be held through oscillations. Good trading!























ICLD: Really really nice setup. Could have been more patient for entry, but really happy with this trade. Entry was $2.45, stop was $2.39. There was no need to get excited and pay $2.45 so I could have been more patient on this... It made the stop slightly arbitrary, and indeed I was narrowly missed on stopping out. As mentioned I could have managed position once it got over $2.50 (high was $2.55 which was around 1.5x risk, but there is no way you could expect it to fail over $2.50 again, arguably the setup calls for adding over $2.50, so happy enough).























LEAF: Was waiting for $46.50 (support) but didn't come, so bought on the breach and prior hold of the $47.30 level after the capitulation. Original entry was $47.62 (which was a chase, but was a clear change of character), and narrowly missed selling into spike (high of spike was $48.31, and if I recall correctly I was offering $48.47 or something). Key here is that it most definitely should have been sold here (especially because it was a chase, chasing makes management even more important). So then when it pulled back I added against $47.30, sold 2/3s on the pause above $48, and held rest into high 48s. This was a great trade, but would have been made even better (to the tune of about +$700) if first management hit, so really just shows even in a nice winning trade management is just soo essential.























TASR: Original trade idea here was that I wanted to buy into $30 with a stop below... Missed that and it turned out to be an amazing trade idea. After it had moved a little over it's ATR ($1.50) I looked at it for a short scalp, and nailed the top, and nailed covering into what turned out to be the relative bottom ($31.41). Reality is that my target should have been $31.53 or something (aka higher probability), but was a good scalp. This actually turned into a nice long setup, but I decided against it because it had already moved its ATR (rather be out of a trade wishing to be in, rather than in a trade wishing to be out!), so happy enough to have declined this setup.
I had another short scalp, but it wasn't quite good enough setup, and when I realised this I was bordering on being stubborn but covered for some slight profit (with a little prodding from Sam, thanks!).
In the end after a 2ATR move it had a high of day rejection setup and then setup for a late day fader, which I missed, but not worried about missing it.























VLTC: Am long some overnight in this account, which will be included in totals on Monday, but the purpose is to box the swing position in main account. As an aside, I did a really good job of staying away from this stock (no borrows, thus I could have been undisciplined and made some stupid long trades on it). The gap up ruined any sort of long continuation trades I had planned.
This setup for a nice late day pop and I got an ideal initial entry with only 10-15c risk, and then added as it confirmed. narrowly missed management by 4c before being stopped for a small loss. I'm pretty happy with the trade, aside from the management issue mentioned already multiple times. Hindsight I should have been expecting the range b/o to fail given the overhead resistance created from trading down all day, but all in all good trade.


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