Wednesday, 6 May 2015
Trading Review: 05-06-2015
Swing Trades: -$168. CELH certainly testing the upper bounds of negating the swing trade thesis. Could be rolling over though, so just holding with stop at $3.25.
Back Account: +$2123. Bit of a mixed day, overall happy to end the day with a reasonable positive day. Historically speaking after a good run I have a tendency to give back quite a bit, and get a little weird mentally, so coming into today I was being mindful of that fact.
Still being mindful of the fact didn't help too much, took a little too much size in the morning (without confirmation) and was down about $5000, then regrouped and got a decent long trade together, was a little antsy and got the size on a little early (but waited for more confirmation), and was up about $15000 at peak. About halfway through the trade the trading platform started malfunctioning and while I had been prepared to manage the position (although not as actively as I should have), this malfunction stopped me from any management and slipped me into home run mentality - so I gave back all of that $15k.
Then regrouped again, and grinded back with some really perfect trading! Came to the conclusion after today when comparing my trading today to yesterday (where I nailed a "home run"), that to actually hit the home run requires a lot of micromanagement of position. For example, long small in dip, sell pop, add little more on dip, sell pop, each time adding size if it does exactly what you expect, then selling a lot of position into strength to allow the rest of position to ride (can always add back later). So the "home run trade" rather than buying massive size and holding massive size for entire move, will occur with a lot of active management + conviction.
Positives:
(1) Did a good job of recovering, from early morning poor trading.
(2) Didn't give back anything from the prior day.
(3) Really good lesson about getting big profit trades by combining trade management AND conviction.
Negatives:
(1) Poor job of controlling risk.
(2) Didn't have an incredible read on the stock today (which is unusual I think).
(3) Poor management of position.
PTBI: Premarket was the trade that got me down around 3k, was just a bit too large with too wider stoploss. Was a particularly poor start to the day!
As it came into the open I anticipated the opening drive, but was happy enough to miss it to wait for a higher conviction, easier to control risk setup, so I played it with small size.
The trade where I was up massively was playing the symmetrical triangle squeeze setup around 10:30am, did a good job of adding to a winner, but was a little quick to add to winner and got most of size on before the break (although it was holding higher). Then sold nothing and this trade brought me back to roughly breakeven on the day when I closed (should have been a 10k+ winner with proper management!) The key was to notice that it had stuffed through the high of day and then made a higher lower (although I should have been at least selling half into $11/$10.80 anyway)
Bias was shifted to short after the midday consolidation failed to hold higher (which coincided with a "stuff" over vwap), and I rode the trend lower.
An interesting side note. There was some really good guidance in the IU chat, e.g. modern rock shorting around $11, and Nate suggesting around midday that you want to buying weakness rather than strength. Point being, while you should make your own plan virtually independently, others guidance can help when being stubborn on anything (e.g. my going for home run) and help break that stubbornness.
TASR: Tried the trend break setup on TASR midday and it worked, but narrowly avoided covering risk into dip which was incredibly frustrating! I had the right read on it, but just missed it! Hindsight should have been more aware because of the habit it has of "saving itself".
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