Monday, 29 February 2016
Trading Review: 02-29-2016
Main Account: +$317.
Pretty piss poor day. Was feeling pretty pumped about starting afresh for the week, and broke all the rules within the first hour. Broke the max size rule, broke the guidelines for how to get above 2/5s size. The rules were broken; not because I was feeling pumped but because HZNP behaved like a crazy unit, which provided excellent opportunity - but was traded poorly. I would liken the opening washout (magnitude and fierceness) as comparable to short TSLA that day it went from mid 140s to 160 on the open.
I think a good rule to implement on these sorts of "great opportunity" moves is to wait for the close of the m2 candle signalling a reversal, rather than trying to read the tape. I want to take the cleaner reversal, and set a hard stop with ease, rather than fiddling with tight stops when it finds a bid.
One thing I note of today, is that I said when I took a big stop (think HZNP on the open) I would write down on a piece of paper what new game plan was, and take a stop and breather... Didn't do that today.
Another thing I note is that recently I said trading was becoming "boring"/not exciting - as a sign of how I was trading very well. That hasn't been the case of recent days... So not a good sign.
Another thing... A reminder about why generating the consistency is so important. Why I need to knock off after meeting target... Consistent profitability increases the ease with which you can be patience for entries, reduces fomo, makes it easier to hit stops, makes it easier to be less biased. Just need to focus on stringing together good days.
Comments on the trades for the day:
(1) Little bit too much stepping in front of things. HZNP prime example, but also occurred on a trade on HZNP later in the day, FSLR. It's fine starting in tiny... But do not look to add until trade idea has been confirmed over time. FSLR I ruined a nice trade by not waiting for the trend change. HZNP "over vwap and back to highs" trade was almost ruined by not waiting for the clean setup.
(2) Taking profits early, as in, line with consistency goal made NUGT a great trade. The trade idea didn't work.
Weekly Review: 02-28-2016
Main Account for the week: -$860.
This past week has put me exactly flat for the trading year, up in Jan and down the same in Feb... So that's pretty frustrating. That being said, I'm ready to come in a crush a new month!
So what went wrong in February? There was a lot of max draw-down days! 6 in total out of 17 trading days. There was 8/17 losing days in Feb, so trimming down those max draw-down days would have helped quite a bit. Big thing in the magnitude of those losing days was the stubbornness, and poor entries.
One thing I improved on in Feb was managed size counter-trend a lot better. In the end I still lost the same amount of money in those tickers. So I need to know when to walk away. In these cases where the first trade flat out doesn't work, I am going to write down a new plan. Articulating why I've been stopped should help quite a bit, in order to avoid the mistake of re-establishing the same trade and taking a second (pointless) stop.
This Feb I tried to extend beyond the $200 target for the day. I believe I approached this in the right way - that is, by still having $200 as a guide but extending beyond $200 on more conservative risk. Clearly it didn't work, the attitude shift led to more losses; compared to the "nail and bail" attitude that having the $200 target created.
First the first week of March I will trade with the $200 target. Just to get in the right frame of mind, and put together consistency. Then I will look to put together a mixture of them, so $200 guide for day, completely stop at $300 etc...
This past week has put me exactly flat for the trading year, up in Jan and down the same in Feb... So that's pretty frustrating. That being said, I'm ready to come in a crush a new month!
So what went wrong in February? There was a lot of max draw-down days! 6 in total out of 17 trading days. There was 8/17 losing days in Feb, so trimming down those max draw-down days would have helped quite a bit. Big thing in the magnitude of those losing days was the stubbornness, and poor entries.
One thing I improved on in Feb was managed size counter-trend a lot better. In the end I still lost the same amount of money in those tickers. So I need to know when to walk away. In these cases where the first trade flat out doesn't work, I am going to write down a new plan. Articulating why I've been stopped should help quite a bit, in order to avoid the mistake of re-establishing the same trade and taking a second (pointless) stop.
This Feb I tried to extend beyond the $200 target for the day. I believe I approached this in the right way - that is, by still having $200 as a guide but extending beyond $200 on more conservative risk. Clearly it didn't work, the attitude shift led to more losses; compared to the "nail and bail" attitude that having the $200 target created.
First the first week of March I will trade with the $200 target. Just to get in the right frame of mind, and put together consistency. Then I will look to put together a mixture of them, so $200 guide for day, completely stop at $300 etc...
Trading Review: 02-25-2016
Main Account: -$755.
Some good trades on the open, and then some real stubbornness set in across a couple of pairs. A stop and reverse would have been appropriate because a couple of them set up as a really nice long (TREE and W).
Another thing of note for the day is the poor entries, which probably led to stubbornness.
Wednesday, 24 February 2016
Trading Review: 02-24-2016
Main Account: -$662.
Got some really nice trades off on the open. Was up decently on NUGT (up about 300 on NUGT) and MBLY (MBLY open trade isn't the reason I was up on MBLY for the day).
FSLR. Obviously day would have been a lot different without FSLR. Worth going through, and include a chart here. The loss on FSLR can be broken down into 3 trades. I did take the stops (with a bit of stubbornness), so that's still an improvement... But similar to the other day where I tried the trade too many times (think it was FOSL on the 17th). After the first stop-out it was obvious that it was in an "opening trend". This means that I needed to switch to the bias, short para's/strength, or buy at support. Any trade that is counter-trend is a scalp until proven otherwise.
I actually switched mostly to this mindset, the bit I missed was (1) To short strength, (2) It's a scalp until proven otherwise. This led to me taking too many trades, and hitting too many stops, then adding in on a minor trend shift, rather than a clean reversal - then getting stopped. Would have been better off avoiding it, or setting alert for support.
Tuesday, 23 February 2016
Trading Review: 02-23-2016
Main Account: +$232.
Bit of an underperformance day. Key identifiable factors that led to the underperformance were:
(1) Overtrading VRX. Going in size a little quickly. Am referring to when I was trying to join uptrend because it was flagging (grinding lower type flag) at highs. The appropriate strategy was to buy support, rather than being overly sensitive to breakouts. This is because it wasn't a classic defined level breakout chart.
(2) Missing nabbing NUGT at the lows. It washed out hard right on open and I tried to place limit orders instead of crossing spread and immediately going full size. Easy $1-$2 pop and I would have been in a great position to trade it with my long bias for the rest of the day. Instead I ended up with a poor average and sized in a little early.
(3) M was a difficult trade early morning but was super clean mid-morning... Wasn't watching it (and more importantly, no alerts) could have been an easy $1 move on full size.
(4) PTCT got full size short in an excellently executed trade. Absolutely perfect addition of size etc. Fault lies in that I covered it all at the lows (which is fine), but then didn't re-establish on defined risk to join further downtrend. Went $3 below my covers. Easy hold for 1/3 of position.
Ironically the biggest loss of the day (MOMO) was actually a pretty solid trade... Narrowly missed covering size twice.. Which happens. Did stick with the trade idea a bit long though once it was grinding and the emotion was out of it.
Monday, 22 February 2016
Trading Review: 02-22-2016
Main Account: +$325.
Pretty solid day overall. Started off with not much to focus on. Out of the open the only two really good ideas I had were long RDUS, and long VRX. VRX didn't work and missed RDUS because it started working premarket.
RDUS ended up setting up as a short but was a bit too illiquid to really sink size into, so ended up about 1/2 size. Was a really well managed trade though, only added once it showed the top.
VRX was dead wrong. Had 3 trades on it, one was a really nice trade on a washout, but then ruined the trade by adding back right as it was testing vwap. I nailed the "buy the washout" trade, but basically hung around too long for the "trend reversal" trade. If I had traded VRX from the short side I would have nailed it, was a perfect failure around g/r with massive follow through and then failed perfectly at vwap and offered nice risk-reward... Then to top it off offered a nice trend trade when it broke below the low of the day (although I was done at that point).
NUGT incredible read on it today. Didn't quite fall back after it squeezed out. Was a massive gap down and gold was down $20, but NUGT squeezed up to the r/g line. This was roughly the short term top. Was still somewhat impatient getting size on, could have had half entered at 30-50c better price with more patience... But still pretty good overall.
LL was the trade of the day. This was sort of like VRX, I got long on the washout (and was stopped at low), but then it setup for the reversal trade, and I bid for some size on a dip after the break above vwap and rode until the hod. A really nicely executed trade.
FB. Was bidding for size risking 30c and would have caught a $1.50 move, unfortunately missed bid and only chased a starter. It happens. Similar with NFLX but didn't take it with full size.
Sunday, 21 February 2016
Trading Review: 02-19-2016
Main Account: -$1186. Broke pretty much all the rules today. First went full size without a stop-loss, then exceeded max size, and then as a result exceeded max draw-down.
About $500 of the FSAM is attributable to the max size without stop-loss, then the other $300 to trading too large.
Back Account: -$1107. A relatively crippling blow to main account. Am going to have to come up with some hard and fast sizing rules for back account. With better management I probably would have been breakeven on it for the day.
Thursday, 18 February 2016
Trading Review: 02-18-2016
Main Account: +$514. Pretty solid day, some avoidable mistakes, and similar mistakes to yesterday. Didn't what turned out to be my best idea of the day - a r/g move on NUGT, low was $44 and high was $55, so that's a real shame. Especially when you consider that it offered a max of $1 risk (at $46) on entry (assuming you weren't already in from lower and adding to a winner, or assuming a bad entry and stop-loss below the recent dip). I need to remind myself that when these ETFs are really at the heat of their "in play" they have enormous range and any time you can risk 20% or less of the ATR for a trend trade it's well worth it. Later in the day there was another opportunity to risk 50c for what turned into a nice $4.50 to the high (that was more of a momo trade though so would have caught $2-$3 of it max).
ZFGN was a really solid trade. I had hoped to turn it into a back account trade, but wanted it to have a monster squeeze for that (was a bit scared of it for back account).. But really good trade in main account, got a feeler long at the low print on open, sold into pop, got short on the stuff near full size (which was perhaps a bit premature, could have gone 2/5s-3/5s and then added on a pop) but covered most into resulting downmove and then held 1/5 for rest of day. Really happy with execution on this.
UVXY shouldn't have lost money on this. Where I lost money was that I had a poor starter position, got a brilliant add on the double bottom and narrowly missed selling most into pop. A note about playing the double bottoms on this. UVXY is so volatile that any time you can buy or short at a level you should try get an average right near the bottom (or top in case of shorting) and flip half immediately to cover risk. By buying into the downmove you catch a (extremely) short term mean reversion, which allows you to cover risk. Similar to channel scalping - except that it's incredibly important to provide liquidity and have the orders ready. In this instance the day low was $43.53 it found a bottom at $43.57 (where you could be 3/4 size with a 30-50c stop), put out an offer for half to cover risk, and boom you have a free trade.
When I did take the stop on UVXY it was a good stop, unfortunately found support just under and rallied back, but that's okay - it happens. The stop wasn't the cause of the loss on UVXY, the misexecution of trading the double bottoms/channel was.
TSLA - chased weakness with too much size. Trading around a position with set risk would have worked much better.
JACK - Disappointment of the day. Caught a good trade off the open with feeler size. Unfortunately added too much at the low and had to stop - which caused a minute loss. The solution here would have been to get a better entry on the feeler trade, then add where I entered the feeler trade (still less than I actually added when I added), and begin covering where I was adding. Remember that on the open you want to fade volatility in general (except for powerful consistent opening drives).
Anyway the real disappointment was later in the day... I had noticed that it was getting pounded by shorts - with SSR on you could see them loading up on the tape, but it just wasn't dropping! This is a classic squeeze pattern with the symmetrical triangle - likewise had it broken the low it would have been a fader pattern (but got my bias from the shorts I could see, and from the fact that stocks that have had massive gap downs have been having really strong rallies). The problem was I didn't play the range within the triangle - usually when these break it is pretty obvious, and they will sometimes have fake moves prior to the true break. As is the recent trend, I was too hasty to get size on and chased strength too much. Ended up being full size (200 shares) with a 40c stop-loss and missed a $2 upmove.
Thing is that when I put the size on it looked like the break, but I just had to give it more time, and more importantly be prepared to miss the trade. Needed to remind myself that the true break would be clean, and prior to the really obvious trade I could trade the range with 100 shares (buy near lows or triangle, sell 50 into pop, try hold 50 for break, buy 50 back near lows, sell near highs, add 50 back once accumulation (over time) clearer, then add the extra 100 shares on clean break. Key is let the trade develop over time. Chart is included for this as I want to keep this in mind. Really similar mistake to TSLA, except that this is 10x cleaner.
Wednesday, 17 February 2016
Trading Review: 02-17-2016
Main Account: -$695. Max draw-down day, and a little bit disappointing. I did notice one improvement when I looked at it in hindsight. FOSL - was one that I would have usually have been fighting the whole way up and breaking rules and adding.. Instead I kept stopping out and re-establising. Still ended up losing the same amount of money (probably), but that's definitely an improvement.
RGLS - Easily trade of the day. I took the morning short in back account and only 100 shares in main account... But the trade I'm really happy with was the short at morning resistance on RGLS. A textbook trade, executed very well.
RAX and FOSL - Both strong uptrends.
I feel pretty okay about how I traded RAX. However, with RAX I would have been better off managing risk by size instead of stop-loss. It wasn't that I was stopped out at the high (which was a stop-hunt), it was that it was difficult to re-establish after the stop-hunt and in turn (on the re-established position) stop had to be wider, and therefore couldn't cover any position into the first sign of weakness. Recall that when shorting uptrends must short strength, not weakness.
Similar can be said for FOSL. Ended up getting stopped at the high twice. Focusing on shorting the over-extended up moves and covering dips, then adding once trend started breaking would have been a lot better. That being said, some really good stops on it, two good ones versus 2 stops at highs. The key would have been knowing that around 10-10:30 that the uptrend was exhausting, and total upside risk much more limited, so switch to controlling risk via size rather than hard stops. Again, short over-extensions to the upside within the uptrend, and wait patiently for the trend to change.
OCUL - The depressing one for the day. Caught a really nice short on the open, which was managed to perfection (because it didn't work straight away, shorted pops covered dips). Then it went on a secondary leg higher when I was in 2/5s-3/5s size (depending on if I had got the cover on the add, as it was I missed by a few cents so was 3/5s). On this type of play if it gets above vwap it usually goes back to the high. The move back to the high is usually just a squeeze out type move and you can expect a stop-hunt. For example the morning high was $9.74 so it would be reasonable to expect a stop-hunt to $10.00. As it was it went to $10.09 and I had my stop at 10.06.
The thing to bear in mind, is that I knew all of the above, so it was just poor scenario planning on my part... Once it got all the stops out it was toast and went back to the lows - and I was trying to short pops but never got a good enough pop - should have just hit it, but oh well.
Anyway the two different ways to trade it are: (1) Stop out all (or most) above vwap, then re-establish a little into what you expecting to be a stop-hunt, and then short once trend broken to full size (after clean breakdown following the stuff). Or (2) Keep a really wide stop, and keep position size near the lows minimal - then add once squeeze is over. I prefer the idea of stopping out of most above vwap, but those are the two scenarios.
Because I missed the cover from my add to short (bringing me up to 3/5s) I was in a spot where I didn't have a choice to do scenario 2.
Back Account: +$740. Really solid day. Kind of funny how get two back account plays within a day, after not having them any for a week.
Had poor patience on VLTC - but apart from that really happy. Hopefully get a few more in the coming days.
Want to be careful that after getting two trades in a day I don't force any more. Also given the recent struggle on back account, if I nail another big trade I will withdraw a little.
Tuesday, 16 February 2016
Trading Review: 02-16-2016
Main Account: +$539. Another tough day - was somewhat self-inflicted.
In terms of strategy I was slightly on the wrong side of things which caused me to stop out a lot more than is idea. Usually when I trade I look for three scenario's: (1) Where I'm completely wrong. (2) The annoying range bound price action where I should still make money through proper execution and patience. (3) Where I'm 100% dead right. Today I was prepared for scenario 1 and 3, but to start with not scenario 2. This caused premature sizing in (and premature starting in), and thus potentially avoided stop-outs despite idea not being completely proven wrong.
I would have to say I probably over-traded in general. Too many starter positions at a no-edge price. Again this led to further problems down the track. The no edge trading is also indicated that all of my profits for the day pretty much came from NUGT and UVXY.
Good reminder - not every idea needs to be executed on full size. A better managed position, with less size will have a higher probability of success AND potentially more profit. Best example today is JPM (chart included) where my idea never really got going, but if I had traded around the position (based on the range shorting near highs, adding, covering a little then reshorting near highs) instead of being bias I would have locked in profits before eventual stop-out - and then been net profitable on the trade.
Sunday, 14 February 2016
Weekly Review: 02-14-2016
Main Account: +$462.
Back Account: -$220.
Pretty solid week with 3/4 positive day. It is a shame that the losing day was a negative draw-down day though; but nevertheless a step in the right direction after last week.
Literally made most of my money this week in NUGT which is kinda funny.
The big loser for the week was ICPT, where I broke my rules and went full size straight away without a stop-loss. Take away ICPT, by limiting it to a reasonable loss amount (say -100 to -200) and I would have been up another $400 for the week, which is a significant improvement. Also broke rules on Thursday with TSLA and got punished heavily intraday for it. Primary goal must still be to manage size effectively and place stop-losses when size is more than 1/5th. If I had achieved this goal this week I would have been significantly more profitable, and been under a lot less pressure.
One other thing I have noticed creeping in is that I am getting a decent draw-down on my starter size. I am okay with this for now, but may be worth revisiting. The bonus is that when I experience a lot of pain on a start it usually creates an amazing opportunity further down the track.
A sub-goal for next week will be to make sure any losing days I have isn't max draw-down! This goes along with the sub-goal of minimising profit variance (e.g. what happened on the 11th).
Back Account: -$220.
Pretty solid week with 3/4 positive day. It is a shame that the losing day was a negative draw-down day though; but nevertheless a step in the right direction after last week.
Literally made most of my money this week in NUGT which is kinda funny.
The big loser for the week was ICPT, where I broke my rules and went full size straight away without a stop-loss. Take away ICPT, by limiting it to a reasonable loss amount (say -100 to -200) and I would have been up another $400 for the week, which is a significant improvement. Also broke rules on Thursday with TSLA and got punished heavily intraday for it. Primary goal must still be to manage size effectively and place stop-losses when size is more than 1/5th. If I had achieved this goal this week I would have been significantly more profitable, and been under a lot less pressure.
One other thing I have noticed creeping in is that I am getting a decent draw-down on my starter size. I am okay with this for now, but may be worth revisiting. The bonus is that when I experience a lot of pain on a start it usually creates an amazing opportunity further down the track.
A sub-goal for next week will be to make sure any losing days I have isn't max draw-down! This goes along with the sub-goal of minimising profit variance (e.g. what happened on the 11th).
Trading Review: 02-12-2016
Main Account: -$617.
Day started out pretty well. I completely mis-timed starting into NUGT short, and rode it for a while. Before getting short proper size and then managing effectively, turning it into trade of the day. It may not have been the best trade idea, but it was an excellently managed position. Also managed to switch bias really nicely later on in the day - only caught it with a little bit, but a good trade.
Never exceeded max size, but broke rules again today, namely on ICPT (but also UVXY at the same time) where I went max size straight away without a stop-loss hoping to bring the day up to the goal of $200. Basically I was trying to force opportunity, but was also tilted so it just wasn't a good idea. I would have been better off just closing off for the day and taking the breakeven(ish) day.
Thursday, 11 February 2016
Trading Review: 02-11-2016
Main Account: +$236. Really hard day. Definitely tested me. Best to look at it in chronological order to get a feel for mistakes. There was also some amazing trading though, but ultimately failed my goal of managing size correctly and got punished for it (to the tune of around $600 on TSLA which put me near max draw-down).
Started the day with a solid short on NUGT off the open, added to a winner and locked in well over $200. This is obviously when I should be scaling down size and trying to cement gains, and I was mindful of this fact; but TSLA was behaving so I added to short (from 1/5 to 3/5s). Then when TSLA broke above the opening high I didn't take the stop-loss ended up riding it from 152 to 162 where I stopped at the high.
Ended up revisiting the TSLA short (with a surprisingly good attitude, i.e. didn't get too tilted) and crushed it - so really happy with this.
EXPE was a bit of a muck up as well (nowhere near as bad as TSLA). Didn't behave quite as well as expected - probably was a bit quick on adding. Ended up getting a really solid long on it though.
Equity fluctuated a lot throughout the day. Up $300-$400 off the open, then down $500, then up $600, then ended day at $200 (the last fluctuation was just good trades going wrong I think or drawing down on unrealised profits, although clearly inappropriate size). It's this sort of inconsistency, and the breaking of the rules that is stopping me from scaling up at all... But for the past few weeks I have been happy with my trading - need a couple of weeks without breaking sizing rules and I can look to increase size.
Wednesday, 10 February 2016
Trading Review: 02-10-2016
Main Account: +$376. Bit of a quiet day by recent standards. Was up quite a lot early (again - am making a habit of this which I'm quite happy about). Literally got near bottom tick on TWX and AKAM and they had pretty monster rallies off the lows (TWX in particular). Unfortunately I never got any size on them (got 2/5s on AKAM and 1/5 on TWX), so was unable to hold a trailer.
TWX - My print was 55.62, 1/5th size, sold into $58, and it went straight to $60. Gave the short a go there, but ditched it when it didn't work. So clearly could have been a monster long... Oh well...
Was about about $600 and looking to close it down, limit risk, but continue trading. I then drew-down to +$360 (but I was being cautious). Reason I bring this up is because I think this drawdown is a little too high when you consider that I was trying not to take too much risk. As a result I ended up closing down before the afternoon session and locking in another good day.
There were some trades in the afternoon that I probably would have caught nicely. Short TWX would have been a good one, and range trading UVXY would have been solid wins. Need to find that balance to allow for slower afternoon trading.
Tuesday, 9 February 2016
Playbook Review: 02-09-2016 $TSLA
Title: Flushing Daily, Big Gap Down, Long for Move2Move Bounce
Strategy Description: This can be a great way to pick up a longer term swing position in a stock you want to hold... But the essence of this play is simply a short term bounce. Usually the stock will be oversold for a reason, and in this case the relative weakness to the market and other high beta stocks is a sign that definitely should establish a longer term position (so entry methods are similar but overall targets and game plan is different).
The setup is as follows (reverse of a parabolic on daily), a stock within down-trend accelerates. The acceleration should be evident when looking at the ATR combined with the volume. The more down days in a row the better. Idea scenario is a exhaustion gap down, and use the opening lows to set risk.
Execution: Need to be very careful to only start into a position, and only add once risk is defined. Despite the gap down, should be prepared for an opening washout of around 1ATR - which would then be considered the final flush-out for a decent rebound. Given the massive oversold nature of the stock should be expecting a sharp rally, but get out the moment the rally fails. This can be done by keeping 1/3 and trailing the stop-loss aggressively.
Notice in particular how the rally was completely faded off - yet this was the sharpest rally of all the high betas (the other high betas didn't all reverse).
Strategy Description: This can be a great way to pick up a longer term swing position in a stock you want to hold... But the essence of this play is simply a short term bounce. Usually the stock will be oversold for a reason, and in this case the relative weakness to the market and other high beta stocks is a sign that definitely should establish a longer term position (so entry methods are similar but overall targets and game plan is different).
The setup is as follows (reverse of a parabolic on daily), a stock within down-trend accelerates. The acceleration should be evident when looking at the ATR combined with the volume. The more down days in a row the better. Idea scenario is a exhaustion gap down, and use the opening lows to set risk.
Execution: Need to be very careful to only start into a position, and only add once risk is defined. Despite the gap down, should be prepared for an opening washout of around 1ATR - which would then be considered the final flush-out for a decent rebound. Given the massive oversold nature of the stock should be expecting a sharp rally, but get out the moment the rally fails. This can be done by keeping 1/3 and trailing the stop-loss aggressively.
Notice in particular how the rally was completely faded off - yet this was the sharpest rally of all the high betas (the other high betas didn't all reverse).
Trading Review: 02-09-2016
Main Account: +$467. Really really good day. Was up roughly $400 by 9:40am as a result of NUGT, TSLA, and UVXY. Interestingly I only got to 3/5s size on TSLA and 2/5s on NUGT and UVXY yet they were still massive winners - just shows how much volatility is out there - and there was so much left on the table. Simply trailing TSLA stop by the m2 low would have resulted in capturing another $10... Crazy stuff...
At this point I had a couple of starter positions on that were giving me a little grief, and I made a conscious effort not to fight too much. Really happy with this attitude, but because of the difficulty of the starter positions I was in (particularly MBLY) I ended up drawing down to around $170 for the day. My conscious effort not to fight too much resulted in being stopped on ETE at the high (on a fakeout at $4.91 when stop should have been around $5.06) and this was on 4/5s position, so was a decent hit. Trade idea ended up working , so would have been a profitable trade. The stop-out arose not only from trying to conserve losses (which I'm okay with) but not being picky enough with entries/sizing in a little too soon.
Looking at the price action in the mid morning/midday/afternoon I would have continued to crush it. TSLA completely reversed the entire move, MBLY did as well, UVXY was an amazing afternoon rejection from the highs. I will continue to trade over the $200 target, without risking too much of it (e.g. half normal size, and not too much fighting of trends), and look to bring in the emotional consistency throughout the entire day that I'm looking for.
Back Account: -$220. Happy enough with the trade on FREE. Was very picky with entry and the idea simply didn't work - so what can you do.
Monday, 8 February 2016
Weekly Review: 02-07-2016
Main Account: - $410.
First bad week I've had since starting the year - at least in terms of PnL. I have had some bad days in terms of process.
One positive for this week was that it was the first day I successfully exceeded the $200 target in the right manner.
Something else I have noticed is that when I'm trading well I very very easily meet the $200 target, and in theory I should easily be able to exceed it every day with current size. There have been multiple days when I have started with a bad trade (say -200 or -400) and turned the day positive through solid trading. Until I actually eliminate these bad trades there is no sense in increasing the target for the day though.
Looking at the statistics above I'm still not happy with size of average winner versus average loser.
The number one goal going forward is now to following sizing rules (1/5th starter, 2/5th once risk defined - then add to winner). This appears to be the number one reason for the big losses and should eliminate those trades that start me on -400 or whatever. Focusing on eliminating the greed is still a goal, but is taking a slight back-seat because I'm getting a lot better at it.
Given that the tilted trading occurs when I am down about $600 it makes sense to edit the max draw-down to $600.
Back Account: -$55. Current market environment not overly suitable for my niche strategy, so I will have to bear that in mind and be even more picky!
First bad week I've had since starting the year - at least in terms of PnL. I have had some bad days in terms of process.
One positive for this week was that it was the first day I successfully exceeded the $200 target in the right manner.
Something else I have noticed is that when I'm trading well I very very easily meet the $200 target, and in theory I should easily be able to exceed it every day with current size. There have been multiple days when I have started with a bad trade (say -200 or -400) and turned the day positive through solid trading. Until I actually eliminate these bad trades there is no sense in increasing the target for the day though.
Looking at the statistics above I'm still not happy with size of average winner versus average loser.
The number one goal going forward is now to following sizing rules (1/5th starter, 2/5th once risk defined - then add to winner). This appears to be the number one reason for the big losses and should eliminate those trades that start me on -400 or whatever. Focusing on eliminating the greed is still a goal, but is taking a slight back-seat because I'm getting a lot better at it.
Given that the tilted trading occurs when I am down about $600 it makes sense to edit the max draw-down to $600.
Back Account: -$55. Current market environment not overly suitable for my niche strategy, so I will have to bear that in mind and be even more picky!
Sunday, 7 February 2016
Trading Review: 02-05-2016
Main Account: -$1000. Hit max drawdown for the day. Quite an interesting day from a learning perspective. Started the day down $400 on TSN and grinded back really nicely, was some really nice trades on DATA, LNKD and HBI which brought it back to float over/under breakeven. After that had the wrong sort of bias on some stock (FB/NFLX/NEM/SBGL) but still was trading okay, but drew-down a bit as a result. The tilt didn't really come until I was down roughly $500... And then it came cleanly and I lost the extra $500 in about 20 minutes.
The tilt was obviously caused by somewhat of a sense of desperation to bring the day back, and by the amount I was down. The result of the tilt, was the usual suspects I have - chasing price and going max size straight away.
Friday, 5 February 2016
Trading Review: 02-04-2016
Main Account: -$256. Weird day overall.
Day started with a couple of fomo chases (possibly emotional/greedy due to yesterdays big gains?). Which didn't result in huge losses by themselves because they were only 1/5th size, but then I felt like I had to try and improve my average which led to adding inappropriately. This was mainly on VHC, but also on GILD - obviously the big loss occurred on VHC though - and was around a $400 loss. Ironically, despite being absolutely (couldn't be more) wrong on VHC, my original plan would have contained losses very very well.
Then I traded back exceptionally and was up a little over $200 on the day. So I closed everything out and kept a VHC trade on (which was a good trade) with a stop-loss, which when stopped put me a bit below $200. There was a bit of slippage so I was up around $160. In this set of decision making it seems that there was a bit of greed involved, but it wasn't too bad, and generally speaking a good decision - it's this process that will allow me to continue to push forward.
Anyway then came back and traded really poorly obviously and ended up here.
Overall, re-reading this review it sounds like I am trading my PnL far too much... But monitoring it actively is really helping monitor my psych; so the reality is that paying close attention to it from the right perspective is working.
Wednesday, 3 February 2016
Trading Review: 02-03-2016
Main Account: +$785. Incredible day... The weirdest part is the magnitude of the winning day - you would think that I got greedy and increased position sizes to try and push it... But that wasn't the case. When I hit up $200 I was already in a 1/4 of NFLX position, and my other positions were working. Being concious of the fact that I usually get greedy I manipulated position sizes and stop-losses to ensure that I was unlikely to slip back below $200 - aka sized down a little and put in appropriate stop-losses.
Then when NFLX broke a super key level I was ready to add to position and covered into resulting (decent sized downtrend), and got a final cover at the low - which coincidentally was when I felt the greed starting to kick in.
Missed a bunch of trades today - but with the results I'm obviously very happy!
Best trade of the day was probably NHTC, where I was only in 1/5th of position size and it had a big washout on the open. Usually because it's only 1/5th I might not lock it in... Anyway it reversed back to opening highs (which provided a really nice rinse and repeat, but didn't take cause had met target)... Anyway the reason I'm really happy with it is because I took the decent quick profit that exceeded expectations, and is particularly important to cover into down-moves (or sell into up moves) on thin stocks.
Feels like there was significant progress made today towards staying the course after winning trades. If there's evidence of a continuation of this over the next few weeks I can look to change sizes, drawdowns, and max gains.
Trading Review: 02-02-2016
Main Account: +$211. Some really good trading today and some really bad trading. Started the day with the poor trading (although NFLX trades were really good!) and the nreeled it in with some (reasonably) solid grinding later in the day.
To sum up the bad trading. Buying into resistance and selling/shorting into support. I always chase a little much, but was much more excessive than other times. There was also stubbornness on KORS. KORS was a -350 trade, but had a really solid trade on it late day.
For tomorrow need to really focus on maintaining good averages and taking profits quick. Without some silly trades I would have been done really early because I nailed the NFLX short.
Back Account: +$75. Need to be a little more selective with setups on back account. I am doing a good job of being selective... However, the market isn't suitable for my back account strategy at this stage - hence needing to be super selective.
Tuesday, 2 February 2016
Trading Review: 02-01-2016
Main Account: -$150. No screenshot today as had a power-cut and picture hadn't been saved.
To sum up the day. I met the $200 target relatively early, and followed my plan to slow down. Had a little bit of a stubborn trade on WUBA (lost about $150 overall, there was some methodology failures but nothing greedy and a good trade idea). But then not stopping at my target sent off some tilt a little bit and didn't trade too well after that.
Back Account: -$130. A good trade on INO, entry should have been a bit better (by about 10c) though but overall can't complain with the trade too much. If I had shorted more than I probably would have managed it a bit more actively as well, which would have helped.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)