Thursday, 18 February 2016

Trading Review: 02-18-2016










Main Account: +$514. Pretty solid day, some avoidable mistakes, and similar mistakes to yesterday. Didn't what turned out to be my best idea of the day - a r/g move on NUGT, low was $44 and high was $55, so that's a real shame. Especially when you consider that it offered a max of $1 risk (at $46) on entry (assuming you weren't already in from lower and adding to a winner, or assuming a bad entry and stop-loss below the recent dip). I need to remind myself that when these ETFs are really at the heat of their "in play" they have enormous range and any time you can risk 20% or less of the ATR for a trend trade it's well worth it. Later in the day there was another opportunity to risk 50c for what turned into a nice $4.50 to the high (that was more of a momo trade though so would have caught $2-$3 of it max).

ZFGN was a really solid trade. I had hoped to turn it into a back account trade, but wanted it to have a monster squeeze for that (was a bit scared of it for back account).. But really good trade in main account, got a feeler long at the low print on open, sold into pop, got short on the stuff near full size (which was perhaps a bit premature, could have gone 2/5s-3/5s and then added on a pop) but covered most into resulting downmove and then held 1/5 for rest of day. Really happy with execution on this.

UVXY shouldn't have lost money on this. Where I lost money was that I had a poor starter position, got a brilliant add on the double bottom and narrowly missed selling most into pop. A note about playing the double bottoms on this. UVXY is so volatile that any time you can buy or short at a level you should try get an average right near the bottom (or top in case of shorting) and flip half immediately to cover risk. By buying into the downmove you catch a (extremely) short term mean reversion, which allows you to cover risk. Similar to channel scalping - except that it's incredibly important to provide liquidity and have the orders ready. In this instance the day low was $43.53 it found a bottom at $43.57 (where you could be 3/4 size with a 30-50c stop), put out an offer for half to cover risk, and boom you have a free trade.
When I did take the stop on UVXY it was a good stop, unfortunately found support just under and rallied back, but that's okay - it happens. The stop wasn't the cause of the loss on UVXY, the misexecution of trading the double bottoms/channel was.

TSLA - chased weakness with too much size. Trading around a position with set risk would have worked much better.

JACK - Disappointment of the day. Caught a good trade off the open with feeler size. Unfortunately added too much at the low and had to stop - which caused a minute loss. The solution here would have been to get a better entry on the feeler trade, then add where I entered the feeler trade (still less than I actually added when I added), and begin covering where I was adding. Remember that on the open you want to fade volatility in general (except for powerful consistent opening drives).
Anyway the real disappointment was later in the day... I had noticed that it was getting pounded by shorts - with SSR on you could see them loading up on the tape, but it just wasn't dropping! This is a classic squeeze pattern with the symmetrical triangle - likewise had it broken the low it would have been a fader pattern (but got my bias from the shorts I could see, and from the fact that stocks that have had massive gap downs have been having really strong rallies). The problem was I didn't play the range within the triangle - usually when these break it is pretty obvious, and they will sometimes have fake moves prior to the true break. As is the recent trend, I was too hasty to get size on and chased strength too much. Ended up being full size (200 shares) with a 40c stop-loss and missed a $2 upmove.
Thing is that when I put the size on it looked like the break, but I just had to give it more time, and more importantly be prepared to miss the trade. Needed to remind myself that the true break would be clean, and prior to the really obvious trade I could trade the range with 100 shares (buy near lows or triangle, sell 50 into pop, try hold 50 for break, buy 50 back near lows, sell near highs, add 50 back once accumulation (over time) clearer, then add the extra 100 shares on clean break. Key is let the trade develop over time. Chart is included for this as I want to keep this in mind. Really similar mistake to TSLA, except that this is 10x cleaner.


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