Wednesday, 17 February 2016

Trading Review: 02-17-2016







Main Account: -$695. Max draw-down day, and a little bit disappointing. I did notice one improvement when I looked at it in hindsight. FOSL - was one that I would have usually have been fighting the whole way up and breaking rules and adding.. Instead I kept stopping out and re-establising. Still ended up losing the same amount of money (probably), but that's definitely an improvement.

RGLS - Easily trade of the day. I took the morning short in back account and only 100 shares in main account... But the trade I'm really happy with was the short at morning resistance on RGLS. A textbook trade, executed very well.

RAX and FOSL - Both strong uptrends.
I feel pretty okay about how I traded RAX. However, with RAX I would have been better off managing risk by size instead of stop-loss. It wasn't that I was stopped out at the high (which was a stop-hunt), it was that it was difficult to re-establish after the stop-hunt and in turn (on the re-established position) stop had to be wider, and therefore couldn't cover any position into the first sign of weakness. Recall that when shorting uptrends must short strength, not weakness.
Similar can be said for FOSL. Ended up getting stopped at the high twice. Focusing on shorting the over-extended up moves and covering dips, then adding once trend started breaking would have been a lot better. That being said, some really good stops on it, two good ones versus 2 stops at highs. The key would have been knowing that around 10-10:30 that the uptrend was exhausting, and total upside risk much more limited, so switch to controlling risk via size rather than hard stops. Again, short over-extensions to the upside within the uptrend, and wait patiently for the trend to change.

OCUL - The depressing one for the day. Caught a really nice short on the open, which was managed to perfection (because it didn't work straight away, shorted pops covered dips). Then it went on a secondary leg higher when I was in 2/5s-3/5s size (depending on if I had got the cover on the add, as it was I missed by a few cents so was 3/5s). On this type of play if it gets above vwap it usually goes back to the high. The move back to the high is usually just a squeeze out type move and you can expect a stop-hunt. For example the morning high was $9.74 so it would be reasonable to expect a stop-hunt to $10.00. As it was it went to $10.09 and I had my stop at 10.06.
The thing to bear in mind, is that I knew all of the above, so it was just poor scenario planning on my part... Once it got all the stops out it was toast and went back to the lows - and I was trying to short pops but never got a good enough pop - should have just hit it, but oh well.
Anyway the two different ways to trade it are: (1) Stop out all (or most) above vwap, then re-establish a little into what you expecting to be a stop-hunt, and then short once trend broken to full size (after clean breakdown following the stuff). Or (2) Keep a really wide stop, and keep position size near the lows minimal - then add once squeeze is over. I prefer the idea of stopping out of most above vwap, but those are the two scenarios.
Because I missed the cover from my add to short (bringing me up to 3/5s) I was in a spot where I didn't have a choice to do scenario 2.

Back Account: +$740. Really solid day. Kind of funny how get two back account plays within a day, after not having them any for a week.
Had poor patience on VLTC - but apart from that really happy. Hopefully get a few more in the coming days.
Want to be careful that after getting two trades in a day I don't force any more. Also given the recent struggle on back account, if I nail another big trade I will withdraw a little.

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