Wednesday, 23 March 2016

New Sizings Plan

Current:

Currently am trading with max sizes: I have done quite a good job of sticking to sizing rules.
$1-$10: 500 shares (although on the smaller stocks this can sometimes be subject to arrangement).
$10-$20: 400 shares.
$20-$50: 300 shares.
$50-$120: 200 shares.
$120-$200: 100 shares.
$200+: 50 shares. This is obviously subject to change as I wouldn't trade PCLN with 50 shares lol...

The max draw-down is relative to size traded obviously. And through experimentation I have found $600 quite suitable to these sizes. This will have to be adjusted in relation to how size is adjusted in the new plan.

Then as a guide I won't take any more than 2/5s of a trade counter-trend, and definitely not without a clear spot to stop-out. The exception to this is when scalping a support/resistance level, as a tight stop low risk trade. Often (more so recently) the 2/5s has become 1/2 because it's easier in my platform to do 50 shares than 40 or 60. There's nothing wrong with this really (1/4 versus 1/5) but it's probably a sign of lack of discipline recently not being pedantic.

Despite the lack of flexibility, adopting this as a hard and fast rule has made big improvements to my trading. It has generally limited the intraday volatility of my PnL, and helped reduce the amount I give back on winning days; and has improved day to day consistency. E.g. Multiple days of +200-400ish, versus a few days positive 600+ and some neutral.

One thing this does not do is reduce my sizes when I'm trading poorly, and increase them when I'm trading well. Remember that the ultimate goal of trading is to make a tonne when trading well, and not lose too much when trading poorly. Hopefully creating a plan for this can reduce tilt induced by losing money, and therefore help returns to profitability after down-swings. So that's what I'm hoping to do here: Create a plan which allows for this.

New Plan: Every day will write out on a flash card the new sizes, like I currently have in front of computer. This will all be subject to change of course. Will see how it goes.

Step 1: Use the above sizes as the current maximum. An increase in the maximum has to be earned through extremely solid and consistent trading.
The maximum is initially increased by 10% after a run of 5/5 profitable day, or 12/15 profitable days. Following from the initial increase, if there is no period between initial increase and current where it decreases, it is increased by 10% every 2/2 profitable days.

The idea here is that it is difficult to get an increase in maximum size initially, but if continued good trading then it increases more rapidly.

Step 2: If two losing days in a row decrease size by 30%. This should never happen if trading correctly, yet it happened twice in Feb.

Step 3: If two losing days in a 5 day rolling period reduce size by 10%. If three reduce by 30%. Add 10% to this for each max drawdown day. Thing is that one max drawdown is okay in isolation, but it's not in combination with other losing days.

Step 4: Now the fun part, earning back lost size, back to maximum. If 5/5 days profitable go back to max size.

Step 5: If 4/5 days profitable increase 30%.

Step 6: Add back 10% for every 2/2 days profitable. Could get over the top with tonnes of different nuances, but think it's better to keep it simple.

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