Trading: 03-03-2016

9:24: Took 50 shares short HLF here @ 53.09, hard stop 53.63. Think it has potential for an opening pop, but want to be in position to add to a winner if it drives lower off open. Chased weakness which was silly because overall was shorting strength - had 5 minutes to execute before open, and should have wanted a lower risk trade.
Mistake 1: Chase weakness into upleg. Could have got better entry easily by about 20c.

9:33: Added to HLF around 53 on the break right on the open. Clearly could have got it at near 53.50 (remember stop is 53.62) so that would be an amazing risk-reward trade. However I feel okay about the add. Ultimately should have had an offer at 53.40 purely for the sake of the amazing risk-reward.That would give an immediate cover at 53 and lock in a bit of risk.
Put in a cover immediately for 52.26.

9:37. MON $85 was a big level from yesterday, and closed at lows so should mark the spot for a 2nd day trend-trend trade. Stop at high of day, entered on the retest of level. Will see in a later chart that it had a squeeze out to near high of day, so would again similar to HLF have been beneficial to have a cheeky order in for the amazing risk-reward. Overall really happy with trade, no mistakes here.

9:42: Started into KR after hold below level, looking for add below place where it's finding support. Stop 38. Was expecting some sort of stop-hunt at this time, but was thinking that if I got it on only starter and took stop I wouldn't mind.

9:45: Hit my stop-limit for add on KR and then popped up and hit stop-loss. Like I say I was expecting stop hunt... But occurred in both directions (was only expecting pop, thought that drop would be real). Maybe mistakes here (??) certainly would have been beneficial trading it against the high, but then I couldn't have sized in like I did.. So not sure. Either way, not a bad loss on a reasonably sized position.

9:48: HLF holding within clean downtrend so added back cover with a trailed stop to 52.60.

9:56: Went half size on the break below 37.75. Surely the move must be coming now is roughly what I was thinking.. Pretty clean move and obvious stop. Was looking to add more on failed retest of the 37.80-38 range.

9:58: Never rolled back from the range. Should be stopping around here and sensing the stubbornness kick in. Good thing I didn't short full size. So far today on KR only shorting strength has really paid off, so I may have been a bit late to the party realising that (???).

10:08: Yep it was another wee stop hunt. Another time shorting strength not weakness has paid in the stock. Far too slow to realise this (as of this momentum at 10:08 only just beginning to cotton onto this fact). Short full size now on the failure. Thought process at the time was that it's a clean stop at 38. Writing this about half an hour later thinking that wouldn't be surprised for more pops.

10:11. Was a nice squeeze on MON. Was lucky to get a tiny cover at the low. Look at that amazing risk-reward shorting near stop-loss. Accidentally added some at market here when I meant to offer 20c higher. Also offered 20c higher as well.

10:25: I had planned to add to HLF short near my 52.560 stop, but decided against it because of the slightly higher lows forming. Peak of base also coincides with vwap so could be setting up for squeeze.

10:34. Break came on HLF and really wanted to chase it as missed fills on stop orders. Forced self to be patient for the entry.

10:34. Hit stop on KR. Biased switched to long given that it couldn't break down under vwap. Frustrating trader. Put in bids originally around 38 but eventually cancelled them cause I just didn't like the way it was trading.

10:41: Filled on bids on HLF. Looking nasty though so don't wanna get any more size. maybe above high of day I would... For now it almost looks like a squeeze out.

10:47: Piece of shit KR ended up being a squeeze out. That's tilting, but kinda happy with the way I traded it and realisation that it wasn't a long. Only thing I'm unhappy with is the slow realisation to short strength rather than weakness... But it happens.

1053: MON right at high of day and appears to be about to stop me out. Am okay with this and happy enough with trade. Narrowly missed management on pull after the 85.20 add.. It happens.

11:00: Feeling somewhat exhausted with all this writing, while to trade. Think I have definitely picked up some goodies off it though. Currently down $158, but should be some decent opportunity for some profit later in the day.
Yesterday and today have been trying to trade with tight risk, and hard stops in place because of recent stubbornness. While this is a good idea, today it has punished me. Usually I would be controlling risk via size - for example short a little bit on weakness, with a certain price as a guide for stop-loss, and then short more on strength and cover dips on any additions. Not playing my natural game punished me on KR and on HLF (less so on HLF).

11:10: Looking for trade ideas for the rest of the day.
HLF - somewhat middle of the range but a high short interest and held morning low quite well. Look long starter against 52.20, sell some into high of day, then re-add if it gets cleanly above high of day. It keeps looking weak on weakness and strong on strength, so need to be careful.
If the squeeze up fails then it should be good for news lows - perhaps $50 on the cards.
CIEN - That's a really big move. Thus far has held the $16.30 area and broke downtrend and floating around wap. Over $17.00 puts the high of day in play. Going to have to be clean for me to take it though as I don't think the risk-reward is incredible. Same as HLF if the squeeze move fails it puts the lows back in play.
NUGT - Gold in full breakout mode and data to back the move (which causes true breakouts). Unfortunately it has moved far too far thus far. So will need to watch for pullbacks and then accumulation for trend continuation. At this point any tight consolidation can be traded in any direction because of massive range. Staying away from short side.. UNLESS NUGT goes para 65 or higher. Will be worth bidding for starter positions at support, so long as gold holds up.
KR - Misplayed in the morning but feel I have a better read on it now. Short strength until 30 min hold above vwap, buy weakness risk against lows. Control risk via size. Expect stop hunts.
HNGR - Look for accumulation patterns and join them.
HABT - Big move off the lows but can't deny that it is accumulating. Long over 19.50 as a starter and then look for the cleaner setup to add.

11:36: Looking to sell starter HLF on a pop and flip short. Said I have to be careful that any weakness doesn't flip bias prematurely, but I think this is enough weakness to begin looking short, especially combined with the fact that break over vwap was a short quick pop which could be considered a squeeze out (rather than a cold grindy trend).

12:12: Took the trade on CIEN after it broke 16.20 to get to full size. Over time it started to look better and better. Was in 1/2 prior to break, and had started in with 1/4. Really happy with the management on this. First sale on half will be into the day high. Any failure around day high and will sell rest, but want to give it a chance to get over the day high for a squeeze. Stop is very clean now at 16.70.

12:16: Took KR into the premarket/morning support. Really like the trade given how it's trading. Also really happy with management of trade, first buy into 37, second buy 36.80, stop below. Try to sell half into first pop and see how far can ride rest. Narrowly missed sale on first pop so see what happens from here.

12:23: Thinking that on CIEN the proximity of the break ($16.90) to $17.00 (a round figure), may be detrimental for the trade.. but really like the consistency of it, so still happy.

12:28: Accumulated a short HLF position on pops. It is full size and potentially should only be 1/2-3/4s but relatively clean stop and really nice entry (on pops). Confirmation below morning support of 51.80, and then the wick low from morning at 51.62. Has an ATR of $3, and with confirmed rejection of vwap (which also confirms the gap down), thinking it has room to 50.XX. If I was no full size already I would be adding below 51.80.

12:32: I had the idea to buy NUGT into morning support. Missed entry narrowly, but happy to see had the right idea.

12:34: KR was rejected quite strongly from the 37.60 zone (high of short term move was 37.45) closing out rest into pop. Need to see it cleaner to flip short though. Very happy with support play. Net realised about 1R but if it behaved better could have been a lot more.

12:46: SSE nice accumulation and breakout pattern. Had to calculate appropriate size before taking trade because of the low price. Am looking max size of 2000 shares, so I just entered 1000 then. Will add to full size over 0.7000.

12:53: KR ended up getting above 37.50, still currently below 37.60 though. Should really be stalking for short entry around vwap but it seems to be turning in trend. Little frustrating to have sold pop rather than around here, but never had enough size to manage 100% effectively anyway.

12:56: Am beginning to view the pop to $17.00 on CIEN as a bit of a stuff move. Time will tell I guess.

12:59: That's pretty tilting. HNGR had exactly the move I expected but wasn't watching. Pretty poor really. Will have to be patient and sit it out. Sure it's pretty illiquid, but would have been a nice high probability trade nonetheless.

1:11: HLF had a bit of a squeeze-out. Annoyed that I didn't cover any into wick low, bit greedy. A key mistake for the day.

1:27; Ditched CIEN, has definitely turned trend now. Could have been out for a slightly smaller loss, but can't fault it too much.

1:49. CIEN was ditched at a relative low. Am okay with this though because I gave it a chance, and i also tried to sell into a little pop. Bit frustrating though. Over $17.00 is still the ticket for a momentum trade, and I will definitely take it. Over $17.00 now would be quite similar to the ANF trade yesterday from $29.70 to $30.40.

2:07: Shorted KR. A nice rejection and slight roll around vwap. I went full size straight away... Which yeah it probably is a pretty good trade... But that usually doesn't work for me in terms of managing the trade, so shouldn't have done it... Maybe gone 2/3s or something. Anyway it's a sign that I'm beginning to get tilted so will try and close out some trades and finish for the day.

2:16: Hit out HLF, it's grinding higher and don't want to be no part of an illiquid squeeze. Still below that key 52.50 level from earlier.

2:17: CIEN came out with a defense about 20 minutes ago which perked it up to 17.00, that was the perfect short spot, risk 10c, already down 20c from there. Little bit frustrating, was looking for the wrong trade, and was thinking that it wasn't really reacting to the defence very much. But at best it goes back to lows, so nothing more than a scalp.

2:20: SSE back to highs. Have stop-limit in to buy on break above 0.7000.

2:29: Covered up KR for roughly b/e or slight positive. All over the place so done for the day, just have SSE left

2:31 CIEN got above 17.00. Not taking the trade. Willing to bet I'll regret not taking it.. but oh well.

2:33: Closed SSE for little loss. Definitely done for day.