Plan

Last chance to make trading a success. Need a defined plan as don't have much to draw on. I will be driving an Uber to meet weekly expenses; so that will take some pressure off trading.

Need to acknowledge that it will take 1 year or more to get back to where I was financially; but hopefully will come out of it a better, stronger trader.

Daily Routine: Last time I had a daily review I found some benefit to it. Even if it was a placebo effect. Worth implementing this again.
1:30am-1:45am: Up, shower and shave. The shave is the important bit - because I don't have to do it but it is part of the mental preparation for morning.
1:45am-2:40am: Do review of prior day. Have some coffee and prepare for the coming day.
2:40am-3:00am: Meditate for 20 minutes. Fiddle around with this, maybe it just involves lying on the couch with no distractions and resting brain.
3:00am-3:30am: More preparation and breakfast.
3:30am-4:30am: Trade the open.
4:30am-4:40am: Take psych score and if continuing to trade have another 10 minutes meditation. Again this could be 10 minutes resting on couch.
At the end of trading day do one playbook entry for a trade that is worth going through.

Actual Trading:
(1) Stop-losses are to be placed before entry. The exception to this stocks that aren't shortable (and I want to go long) where stop will be placed straight after entry. Note that I used to have issues with this because of buying power, but I won't any more because won't be trading enough size to have BP issues.
(2) Will be aiming for a profit goal for first few months. First month will be $100 goal, and max drawdown of $200. Ideally second month will be $200 goal with max drawdown of $400 (but will see how first month goes, maybe even keep it at $100, or perhaps reduce ratio of max drawdown to profit goal).
(3) Max loss of $200 will be entered into system. Obviously adjusted when this changes.
(4) Will try and avoid starter positions because it's difficult to place a stop-loss on them. I want clearly definable trades.
(5) Max size will be:
$2-$10 -- 400 shares.
$10-$20 -- 200 shares.
All else 100 shares.


Will set up two separate stickk goals for each of the above. If it could keep me running for 5 months, then it can keep me disciplined in trading. The stick goal will fail if a single rule or routine is broken.

Also for each minor rule broken I will need to earn $20 on Uber; on top of the amount I need for living expenses. If I break the max size rule, or don't take a stop-loss I will need to earn $150 Ubering. After-all working a job is the consequences of breaking any rules.

Trading Review: 11-16-2016: Blowup Day

Gross PnL: -$30527.

Net PnL: -$31543.

I was quite proud of the fact that I hadn't been too beat up by DRYS on the upside (prior few days). To be honest it was luck because I had big positions that came back instead of squeezing out. I had some poor entries and therefore not clean stops.

As I'm writing this I am watching these shipper stocks completely crumble the day after this - so it really sets in the lessons learned. A patient, disciplined; only adding size once already a winner version of myself would have crushed today - with virtually no downside because of the adding to a winner and the clean places for stops.

I spent the morning mentally preparing for a big trade. I was aware that if I messed it up that I could blow-up; but estimated the probability of success extremely high. Of course hindsight, you never want to put your career on a single trade idea/theme... I knew this and went through with it anyway (arrogance/cockiness/overconfidence?). So this is just flat-out stupid!

Then DRYS was halted pre-market. Not a regulatory, but Nasdaq requesting more information. I took this as a sign that the shipping run was over. Indeed the basket that I was watching all dropped sharply. So I maxed out buying power and shorted a basket. And got squeezed.

Ultimately the fault lies in:
(1) Over-confidence (not being prepared for the outcome of losing trade).
(2) Wanting to crush entire move with full size.

Solution: Don't be so reckless. Starting with medium sized position would have ended up stopping me for a moderate loss. Come in the next day with same strategy by adding to a winner (slowly/patiently) I would have made just as much for about 1/30th of the risk!

Essentially I have some habits that I have to correct which may take up to a year or maybe more. That is:
(1) Fomo/greed caused me to take a massive position right off the bat. Need to get rid of that and let things play out.
(2) It will help to place stop-losses before I place entry order.
(3) Need to develop the habit and discipline not to exceed max size.
(4) More respect for risk.

Here are the charts including next day action: Shows clearly that adding to a winner was much lower risk. Have also included the positions I had on in my reckless moment.

One thing watching all these stocks plummet in a predictable and easily tradeable manner has done is re-awakened my passion. After the blow-up day I wasn't sure if I wanted to continue trading. Now it is clear that I definitely do!

Trading Review: 11-15-2016

Gross PnL: +$2223.

Net PnL: +$1270.

Fair to say I completely messed today up. The plan was to wait until DRYS had clearly failed and then short the shit out of the sympathy plays. I expected that it needed to do parabolic and fakeout action, and may even take until 11ish. I was willing to put size on that would potentially jeopardise account if fucked up (which I did, but managed to hang on) because I believed it was such a high probability and nicely defined risk (once DRYS failed).

So DRYS had a wee down-tick at the open and I shorted like crazy fullsize. Makes sense right? What a fucking idiot. Even though DRYS did not fail today; there was opportunity to make massive money on the short side. You just had to pick the spots.

A few takeaways from today:
(1) I believed with absolute conviction that it was over when DRYS had the big crack around 10:30. I would have put the probability that it had another leg up at around 10%. This is relevant because it makes the second point even more relevant.
(2) Always take some profit on big moves in your favour no matter how much conviction you have in the trade. Not covering any TOPS/EGLE into the FIRST low of day test; especially given my shitty average was the dumbest thing I could have done.

For tomorrow. I am still willing to short massive size on these piece of trash sympathies; given the once a year opportunity. However, I have come to appreciate that I need to pick my spots better - so will let them come to me and focus on getting good risk-reward entries. I need to be perfectly comfortable with missing the good entries and joining them when they start down-trending as well.

DRYS Squeeze: Thoughts/Trading Stage 1

Every once in a blue moon a monster squeeze happens; which lifts all stocks in the same sector. Goal of this post is to put something into writing to describe exactly how this this squeeze has played out (and add to it when it's over) to be 100% prepared for the next one.
Will do another analysis post once the short side is over.

Stage One: The Squeeze Extends Beyond Where Normal Squeezes Go
In this scenario this can be loosely described as that moment on day 3 of the squeeze when it got above the morning highs to go from $20 to $40.
As a general guide it is when it has reached the disbelief stage and sort of showing it can continue squeezing.
In terms of percentage gains. If you think 100% on day 1, 100% day 2, then 100% day 3 you're talking about 800% overall.
The point is that it has gone beyond what you would have thought is possible and is starting to generate "macro" attention.

While money can still be made on the long side here... Monster money can be made by finding sympathy plays. The best sympathy plays will also be low float. Note that the goal here is the be the first in; before most have found it. So don't be afraid to get in a stock that barely moves. By being first in, you can cover risk into the first "discovery pop". If this trade fails it will be a first in first out type basis - so focus on getting a good low risk entry rather than chasing.

Pic of Finviz Greece Shippers: Note that it won't always be this easy to find sympathies.

If you go through these and pick the lower float ones you are left with: TOPS, SHIP, DCIX, ESEA, GLBS. Notice how a day after they are the biggest gainers.
Here are some results. First a conservative entry price, then vwap the next day; and then percentage gain assuming vwap exit.
TOPS $3.20 -- $5.44 -- 70%
SHIP $2.40 -- $5.20 -- 116%
DCIX $2.50 -- $5.20 -- 108%
ESEA $1.70 -- $4.25 -- 150%
GLBS $2.70 -- $4.60 -- 70%
Again: Don't assume they are going to take off. Focus on good risk-reward entry on dips, covering risk and let rest run. It will go further than expected.

Here are some intraday charts from these stocks. It isn't important what ones were good runners and what weren't. I believe the big takeaway here is that they didn't all behave the same. Some gapped up, para'd out; while others didn't really gap but then trended all day.
Another takeaway is you didn't need to sell ASAP on the gap up. I think the failure on DRYS around 10:30 is probably where you would start to ditch these stocks with more aggression. In general selling strength is clearly the favoured outcome.

Side note: Rebuying the ones that are holding above vwap for a momentum play is also reasonable.

DRYS on Day of Sympathy Squeeze:

Sympathy Stocks:

Trading Review: 11-14-2016

Gross PnL: -$7105.

Net PnL: -$7587.

Really weird day. I had 3 conviction trades that I had size on all stop me out. I took the stops at the appropriate places; and really the only mistake was having too much size on.

I had a little too much on DRYS short early, but only marginally too much. It really just wasn't my day.

Additionally; if I hadn't been disciplined and taken my stops I would have guaranteed blown up. I was short DRYS around $16, and stopped around mid 17s, and it closed the day at $44.
So despite loss being sooo much bigger than I would like - I honestly can't complain too much. To avoid the blowup scenario; where you would have blown up with any size - and at a time when I am having trouble with stubbornness is pretty good!

Side note: CRBP I was stopped at the high before a big unwind.

But yeah overall pretty disappointing. I'm meant to be focusing on the grind, not trying to crush a few setups. Nothing wrong with trying to do one, but three?

Weekly Review: 11-13-2016

Net PnL: +$8582. For the month currently sitting at just under +$3k. Happy to be up, but not really what I had been aiming to do.

Few issues to address:
(1) Had two max drawdown days. One of which was nearly a blowup. WTF is this. Shouldn't even have one max drawdown day a month. (one was tilt, and one was not taking a stop).
(2) Am feeling a lack of "performance drive". This is evident by the quality of my reviews and just general feel. To survive and thrive this is not good enough.
(3) I clearly still haven't managed to ditch that "crush things with size" attitude. No problem with this if it's controlled; except that it's not controlled very well at the moment. One example of when I got this right this week was PTCT on Friday; where I felt I had a strong bias on it, but didn't try to smash it. As a direct result of that I got great entries, good covers and didn't ruin a good trade.

So plan for this week?
(1) Review every day.
(2) Psych score and scores for trading every day. Focus on the willingness to take stops score.
(3) Improvement post focused on how prepared was for stops.

Trading Plan for this week?
(1) Only try and push niche setups by the strictest definition. If strong bias but not strict definition then lock in 3/4s.
(2) Focus on getting good entries relative to stops. This definitely makes it easier to hit a stop.
(3) Take all stops.

Food for thought: Why is it that a year or two ago I easily hit every stop over and over again even if I was tilted?
(1) I had a hard stop order in system. Unfortunately that's more difficult on this platform.
(2) I was less directionally biased. This is stupid because even high probability trades still only have 80% probability of success.
(3) My execution wasn't as good. I now trade around positions a little more. This can lower risk on counter-trend trades, increase probability of success; and to some extent makes it a little more difficult to get a clean stop-out.
^^ So I think the key takeaway is simply making sure I have a definitive plan. May have strayed away from original trading because other areas have improved significantly.

Trading Review: 11-11-2016

Gross PnL: +$2726.

Net PnL: +$2412.

Some really good trades today and some really bad trades!

Good trades:
(1) Really happy with PTCT. Definitely trade of the day. In part of my plan, I thought it would down-trend all day. But there would always be a chance it wasn't clean and would squeezeout etc. So I had covered most of my size at the lows, and then put it back on at the highs. Really good patience and no fomo.
(2) EGLE was a good trade, despite appearances of a big loss. I never added to the trade; and eventually took the stop and the proper place. If I hadn't been being squeezed on DRYS this would have only been a small loss - because I didn't add at the exact spot I wanted to (prior to stop-out); which gave a nice rinse and repeat opportunity.
(3) NUGT was a great scalp against the lows. And did a great job of recognising that it was going to go through the lows.

Bad trade: DRYS.
(1) Essentially it did what I expected. With a micro float I expected it had at least an opening rally in it.
(2) Ended up full size around prior days high. Idea was that I would be able to cover a small pull-in; and then stop above. In line with it being a micro float it blew through it. This was the spot to attempt a starter position NOT BE FULL SIZE.
(3) Didn't hit the stop for around a $3k loss. At peak was down about $11k on it. A complete joke.
(4) Would have been able to re-establish the position at a better price and easily made it all back and then some. Instead of holding and potentially blowing up.

TAKE STOPS! When I am super biased on a stock they offer a chance to get a better price later!

Trading Review: 11-10-2016

Gross PnL: +$8234.

Net PnL: +$7867.

5/10 psych score at 10:30. Was up $400+ but didn't take it because of greed.

Ummmm so I'm not really sure what to say about today. Such a weird day and not what I wanted at all; but I'll take it. Definitely relieves pressure.

For the most part I think I traded okay. Some pretty obvious mistakes.

Starter out the day with a nice long on BTUUQ. Simply took the breakout over previous days high - it felt like a chase but given the potential it was a good entry. Only took small and was actually up $400 very early - which was my goal and I could have easily called it a day there.
I had a few losing trades; that I feel were quite good trades; but just didn't work out.
Ultimately the big mistake was trying to size into the BTUUQ long (broke rules and got greedy). I ended up with 1800 shares near the highs (compared to the 800 I had on first trade). The only thing that stopped me from losing money on BTUUQ was that I sold it when $15 didn't break (kinda like fakeout action). So I only lost a few hundred on 1800 shares.

Then DRYS came along. I was actually watching it when it broke over $7, thinking this could potentially be a long; and certainly a hot watch for a short. But it's definitely not a short while it's trending because of the micro float. Did an amazing job of shorting each relative peak with defined risk (although I feel I would have been brutalised by having to stop out). Looking at it in hindsight it's hard to believe I made money on the short side (both times).

Ultimately today was not what I was looking for - I should have been out after being +$400 - and then maybe added $1000-$2000 to that when it showed DRYS was a niche setup. But I would also add that I didn't do enormous size on it (was contained, somewhat).

Trading Review: 11-09-2016

Gross PnL: +$1996.

Net PnL: +$1596.

Didn't get the best covers, but overall lucky to escape with this. After all it was a tilted trade.

Will be good to have a think about these two days at the end of the week once I've had a chance to think about them.

Although it is tempting to try and make back to breakeven for the week... For the rest of the week I will focus on making the $400 a day (as was original plan) - unless there is a niche setup.

Trading Review: 11-08-2016

Gross PnL: -$3232.

Net PnL: -$3739.

I took CANN overnight. Eerily similar to when I took BTUUQ overnight (not the setup) because I have "hope" that it will work. Will need to cut it off quickly tomorrow if it doesn't go red within first 45 min.

Terrible day overall, ranges were massive and although I expected that to some extent it just didn't go well. Opportunity was there, but day was ruined in first few minutes.
In general I was unprepared to stop. This was exaggerated by the super quick moves. Had I taken stops quickly I would probably have been able to dig myself out of the hole. In particular this shows on HTZ, where my stops look okay in width - but they weren't because that was big moves.

Also had tilted trades where I entered full size immediately.

MOMO: When making my premarket plan: $27 was my dream price for an opening wash. Moved sooo quickly next thing I knew it was low $26s. Should have hit it there for a loss of around $1000.

VRX: Shoulda stuck with my long idea... But again was just too aggressive and too wide. I initially had anticipated a squeezeout, but when it got back to the lows it seemed like that had happened. Not picky enough with price, and then too slow on stop. Lost about an extra $500 here. Additionally first short entry would have been a great long spot with stop against low.

HTZ: Stops far too wide (it doesn't look like it cause range was massive). Additionally very poor initial trade shorting at the lows. A pretty tilted trade here overall, should have been around $1000 loss on net.

CVS: This wasn't too bad, just didn't hit it when it breached. Still lost about an extra few hundred.

Trading Review: 11-07-2016

Gross PnL: +$469.

Net PnL: +$446.

Did what I came in to do - so pretty happy. Obviously missed a good short by not holding CEMP; but it happens.

Biggest thing from today is be careful on starter entries, make sure I have a solid plan in prior to getting starter. I did this well with LIVE which never provided more than a starter entry. But then sort of missed the idea with CEMP and IONS. Ultimately this is what I am trying to fix...

Plan for November

After a nasty finale to last month pretty important to rebuild.

Two reasons for this:
(1) Want to ease away from becoming financially pressured - without putting on too much risk.
(2) Rebuild some psychological capital so I'm not jumpy.

Why do I need to rebuild psychological capital?
The loss on BTUUQ was from being stubborn. As a direct result of that; the $5000 loss on NSPR this week was a result from over-trading due to tilt - directly resulting from the BTUUQ stubbornness. I would have made money shorting NSPR in my optimal state.

For the first week I will aim to do $400 a day and then leave for the day. There is no exception to this. After the first week I'm willing to change this up a little. But I'm not entirely sure how I want to do this. I know for sure that I want to spend most of the month targeting figures; and indeed perhaps a decent portion of next month as well.

An idea for how I might change it is: $400 target, unless niche setup; then try ride 1/4. Perhaps adding back when risk is tight and there is no risk to PnL. If niche setup pull out at $1000 etc.

Trading Review: 11-04-2016

Gross Profit: +$445.

Net PnL: +$299. A platform fee is included in here somehow.

I hadn't intended to trade today, but the money had cleared and couldn't resist essentially. Kinda good because I felt I went through a mini development during the day. VRX was too much size, then I re-focused and made solid trades on MOMO and DCTH.

Met $400 target (post on this) so pretty happy.