Gross PnL: +$2223.
Net PnL: +$1270.
Fair to say I completely messed today up. The plan was to wait until DRYS had clearly failed and then short the shit out of the sympathy plays. I expected that it needed to do parabolic and fakeout action, and may even take until 11ish. I was willing to put size on that would potentially jeopardise account if fucked up (which I did, but managed to hang on) because I believed it was such a high probability and nicely defined risk (once DRYS failed).
So DRYS had a wee down-tick at the open and I shorted like crazy fullsize. Makes sense right? What a fucking idiot. Even though DRYS did not fail today; there was opportunity to make massive money on the short side. You just had to pick the spots.
A few takeaways from today:
(1) I believed with absolute conviction that it was over when DRYS had the big crack around 10:30. I would have put the probability that it had another leg up at around 10%. This is relevant because it makes the second point even more relevant.
(2) Always take some profit on big moves in your favour no matter how much conviction you have in the trade. Not covering any TOPS/EGLE into the FIRST low of day test; especially given my shitty average was the dumbest thing I could have done.
For tomorrow. I am still willing to short massive size on these piece of trash sympathies; given the once a year opportunity. However, I have come to appreciate that I need to pick my spots better - so will let them come to me and focus on getting good risk-reward entries. I need to be perfectly comfortable with missing the good entries and joining them when they start down-trending as well.
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