Every once in a blue moon a monster squeeze happens; which lifts all stocks in the same sector. Goal of this post is to put something into writing to describe exactly how this this squeeze has played out (and add to it when it's over) to be 100% prepared for the next one.
Will do another analysis post once the short side is over.
Stage One: The Squeeze Extends Beyond Where Normal Squeezes Go
In this scenario this can be loosely described as that moment on day 3 of the squeeze when it got above the morning highs to go from $20 to $40.
As a general guide it is when it has reached the disbelief stage and sort of showing it can continue squeezing.
In terms of percentage gains. If you think 100% on day 1, 100% day 2, then 100% day 3 you're talking about 800% overall.
The point is that it has gone beyond what you would have thought is possible and is starting to generate "macro" attention.
While money can still be made on the long side here... Monster money can be made by finding sympathy plays. The best sympathy plays will also be low float. Note that the goal here is the be the first in; before most have found it. So don't be afraid to get in a stock that barely moves. By being first in, you can cover risk into the first "discovery pop". If this trade fails it will be a first in first out type basis - so focus on getting a good low risk entry rather than chasing.
Pic of Finviz Greece Shippers: Note that it won't always be this easy to find sympathies.
If you go through these and pick the lower float ones you are left with: TOPS, SHIP, DCIX, ESEA, GLBS. Notice how a day after they are the biggest gainers.
Here are some results. First a conservative entry price, then vwap the next day; and then percentage gain assuming vwap exit.
TOPS $3.20 -- $5.44 -- 70%
SHIP $2.40 -- $5.20 -- 116%
DCIX $2.50 -- $5.20 -- 108%
ESEA $1.70 -- $4.25 -- 150%
GLBS $2.70 -- $4.60 -- 70%
Again: Don't assume they are going to take off. Focus on good risk-reward entry on dips, covering risk and let rest run. It will go further than expected.
Here are some intraday charts from these stocks. It isn't important what ones were good runners and what weren't. I believe the big takeaway here is that they didn't all behave the same. Some gapped up, para'd out; while others didn't really gap but then trended all day.
Another takeaway is you didn't need to sell ASAP on the gap up. I think the failure on DRYS around 10:30 is probably where you would start to ditch these stocks with more aggression. In general selling strength is clearly the favoured outcome.
Side note: Rebuying the ones that are holding above vwap for a momentum play is also reasonable.
DRYS on Day of Sympathy Squeeze:
Sympathy Stocks:
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