Tuesday, 17 February 2015

Trading Review: 02-17-2015








(Ignore the SPI in the above that's for the next day).

Intraday Trades: -$1588. Got stuck in the SGNL halt long... Very nasty. Then after being down decently on oil I decided to call it quits for the day. Was plenty of opportunity out there though.

SGNL: GENE was dominating premarket so I decided to get long SGNL in sympathy, was working for a little bit and GENE continued to go up... But then SGNL was halted and announced a share offering for $2.80 (was long at roughly $4.50ish)... So very nasty. But to a certain extent completely out of my control.
Focusing on the process for the trade: I was a little impatient with my entry, should have got it at least 10c or so.
As for after the halt, I should have been offering it out staggeredly trying to get the best prices as it traded at $3.70 a couple of times, and I would have got an exit about 50c better (=$500).
I had given up for the day, but I really would have loved to get really large on that first test of $2.80, risk 5c or so for 20c. Could have gone 5k shares+,plenty of liquidity.


Oil: This was basically a nightmare and an example of how fading can go wrong, especially with commodities which tend to have a little more momentum. Accordingly I am going to refine my fade strategy, because clearly it doesn't work quite as well commodities as it does for forex. Hopefully the improvement will help with the forex fading etc. This refinement and full explanation will be posted on blog.
I had more or less given it up on fading the oil, but then I was flicking through time-frames and noticed that even the hourly chart was super super extended, so I decided to give it one more go, this time with options because of the superior RR they represent, so I picked up a tonne of $52 calls at 17c (by the end of the day these were trading at $1.60 (holy shit!), and just traded 1 futures contract. I noticed that oil had started the hold higher, but I got out of my options, which put me at around -1500 for all the oil trades, and decided to trail the stoploss tight on the futures contract and just leave it on. So it ended up rallying about $2.50, which is ridiculous... And so I ended up breakeven on the oil trading all up.
I guess the lesson here is that a combination of overextension, e.g. hourly, and 15 minute will lead to a better reversal (also I like the daily bullish), but thought it would have had one more down day.
And of course the other lesson is the work I will do on refining my strategy.
I think one other possibly takeaway is that if you're going to leave anything sitting there it is probably better off being some options. The RR is so much better (although my tight stop was about 10c).






















PSTR: Again it's just mucking around, the longer it holds here the less prepared I will be to hold it on rallies/add short into rallies.

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