Trading Review: 03-31-2015

Intraday Trading: +$130. Spent a lot of the day focused on my GENE trade in my back account, which was with massive size. Was a pain to have to trade it in back account but IB ran out of shares early. Mucked up execution of it, should have been a very decent sized winner; so I will do a playbook review of it.
Aside from GENE I had really really good patient disciplined day (and even that was "relatively" unemotional given the size I was trading). Waited for the levels for the most part, and the only sizing slip-up was on ADXS, which wasn't too bad .
Mistakes:
(1) Impatience in waiting for level for KRFT. Particularly given the grinding price action and no clear        reversal pattern. Also given that looking at the daily rollover I'm bigger picture bearish.
(2) Too much size into ADXS parabolic too early, expecting a "stuff" rather than waiting to see what        price action told me.

TSLA: Shorted on the open, stop above 194, covered risk very quickly and held next half for another $1. Don't really like trading TSLA too much so it was only a small position.

QUNR: Really surprised by this, I expected it to break through $40. Got a nice patient entry and had stop at r/g (slightly above day high). Hindsight I should have then trailed the stoploss once $40 held and made a slight higher low.

KRFT: Was a few slight mistakes in KRFT. $87.35ish was the low from the prior day so I was looking to buy into that level (which also corresponded with a roughly 1ATR move), but did first attempt at long at 88 after it paused for a brief moment (not a drawn out reversal pattern just a slight curl up and pause). Stopped on new low.
Then it moved quickly downwards and bottomed at 87.50 and I managed to get filled on 100 shares (about 1/4 of what I wanted), nevertheless I half into the spike and then got more fills as it moved down. There's a key lesson here: With grinding type price action you do not want to be buying a flush on the second attempt at the level (2nd attempt more likely to be a real break). So I lost a bit of money there and was stopped lower.
Now it started to show a character change about 12:15 and base out, which provided plenty of opportunities to bid in appropriate places... But I had already had 2 losing trades and I decided it wasn't a good enough idea to give it another go. Naturally it rallied about $1 to $88 after this, and would have recovered all the prior losses and then some, but that's okay!
I haven't had a huge amount of experience at exploiting level edges, so I'm okay with the way I traded this, but I will need to put in some work later on exact processes to follow.

HZNP: This was just mucking around with smaller size against the $25.70 level that was made earlier in the day. Once it tested $25.70 a couple of times I trailed stoploss to just below the low and was wicked out, but all okay! Managed half in appropriate position and all good!

GBSN: Chased a little long and sold into spike. Had wanted to get a little more lower, but was patient and the opportunity never came so that's okay. Missed sale on next 1/3, and sold 2/3s as it began to struggle. Could have been more patient with the remaining 2/3 but I saw Shark was adding to his short so decided not to.

DANG: Gap up on earnings and holding near the highs after failing to make a new low. Began to long dips, and then added as it went in my favour. Decided it wasn't going to work and sold it for around breakeven. Clearly could have sold near the highs if patient, but don't think it was worth the trouble.

CONN: Simply shorted small into parabolic. Has a short interest of 50% so was just being a little careful with this, and in the end opted not to add once it had peaked out. The spike on air from about 33.00 to 33.80 demonstrates my point about the riskiness. That being said, I would have been more prepared to put some size on if it had made it to around $35. A good change from my recent attitude of shorting parabolics - going through and reinforcing how I trade them really helped!

BMY: Really nice trade. Should have had an entry about 5c better, but nevermind. Probably should have been a bit bigger as well given the excellent RR characteristics of the trade.
Was tight directly below vwap with a downtrend. Above vwap would have been long signal and below tight consolidation a signal of trend continuation. It actually caused a little grief on the initial break, because it broke higher, and then broke lower - basically wasn't that clean. But there was a very clear momentum when it tested about 64.90 when it was obvious, and I got short there, whereas I should have got short a little and offer 64.95ish. Nevertheless, good trade.

ADXS: Shorted into the excessive upmove as it broke into new all-time highs. Given how far it had run intraday (over 1ATR) and the time of day I had reasonable confidence in doing this with a risk based off $15. My expectation was that it would stuff through the $14.50 level and be a fake breakout. However, when it held the $14.50 level a little too well I didn't have any room to add more size into $15. So this was a slipup, more or less the opposite of what happened with the stressfree parabolic of CONN.

GENE: Ran out of shorts at IB early, so just left the 100 shares on just for the sake of it (helps keep an eye on what's going on!). Thankfully I now have a back account with good borrows so it's not as bigger deal when IB runs outa shares.

Swing Trades: -$1052. Basically comes from CRMD massive squeeze. It could have been played better, it was a little bit of a recurring theme in my swing trades recently so will be part of my monthly review to go through, reinforce and structure my swing trading process.

AXN: Still have massive size in back account. Was down at $1.60 at it's peak today. However, I'm actually okay with this due to the fact that my exit plan is to wait for 5 down days (this is number 2). Now the need to manage some of the position out is gone because I have a good average and price action is now confirming my thesis.

ADXS: Reality is that it's time to start offering out the options. Price action is telling a different story, and my understanding is that this is a fundamentally stronger company (despite having tonnes of warrants etc...) than say GENE or CRMD, so it's just not worth the trouble given the conflict between price action and fundamentals. Something like ACHN kinda comes to mind, where it's still overvalued, but is going to be a slow fade-off with no clear spots for the big pull.

LL: Finally starting to work.. But my options expire soon! So planning on rolling them over to a new expiry.

CRMD: The killer of the day. Basically just a big dirty squeeze. I actually didn't trade it too bad. I got nice adds on the open but then didn't get my size off when I was in profit.This is going to make an amazing play when it finally tops!! Thinking like maybe gap up $11 push then hammer it. Will wait for below vwap to establish any size on swing.

Trading Review: 03-30-2015

Intraday Trading: -$423. Even though it was a decent losing day, I'm reasonably happy with how I traded. There were a few things I'd change (mentioned below), but the biggest loser was something I had reasonable conviction on, didn't get overboard with size, and allowed myself to be wrong. For ease of reference in the future I have listed the mistakes below (in no particular order), but again, I'm not too worried, it was a solid, moderately well disciplined day.
(1) BDSI: Entry was an acceptable chase but didn't manage any into a 1.5R spike.
(2) AAL: Counter trend scalp against high of day needs to be established minimal distance from hod.
(3) KRFT: Shorted retracement to vwap too early in the day when it wasn't reliable (pre 9:45am or 10am).

BIOC: This stock caught a solid run during the GENE madness earlier this year. It's not quite a direct sympathy (like say LAKE, VSR, APT), but it is reasonably, so not anywhere near as good as picking up those cheap while LAKE has a dead-cat bounce, but still good. Got the idea off twitter, bit disappointed I didn't think of it, but acted appropriately.

BDSI: This would have been a great trade if I had seen it earlier. Classic, big gap down, then grind and over vwap. I came to the party a little late, but conveniently it offered a spot to get in as a slight chase. Was looking to manage 10c higher than it actually went... Normally that would be fine, but because this was a slight chase it's more important to manage quickly.

AWAY: Strong consistent downtrend, a hold below 30.00 is a nice breakdown. Just tried to join. Had I been paying attention was a clear exit at 30.11 rather than 30.21 but not too bigger deal. Probably continues tomorrow so keep in radar.

AAL: Entered short near the high of day in the afternoon. Stop above the high. If this was a bigger picture idea (e.g. big technical breakout on daily) then it wouldn't have been a chase shorting 15c below the high, but because by definition it is a counter-trend scalp (without even any parabolic) risk needs to be a lot tighter than that and only should have had 5c of risk. Aka, short exactly at the high.

SPY: A very basic gap up and hold after 11am so join the trend. Would have actually been a better trade via the stock (better RR and ultimate payoff), which is quite interesting.

REFR: Was a pure short scalp against the high after chatroom buy. Nothing worth writing up about, small size.

NVGN: Got an amazing entry off the open with really small size, but then bought more into high looking for r/g move. Unsure if it was a mistake or not. Think I probably just got a little too large.

KRFT: Shorted this on the open (approx 9:34) on a retracement to vwap. Obviously had the right idea as it came off solidly after that. It retraced back to the high and stopped me out. I think that shorting retracements to vwap too early in the day (pre 9:45am) can go in my anti-playbook. Instead just offer up with risk to highs.
Looked at it in the afternoon for a short if it broke down but it didn't. Would have been a great long off tight consolidations!!

HZNP: This was the killer for the day. But I'm actually okay with it. Was looking for a hold below $25 to get short with potential $2 reward. Gave it a go 3 times in total, so clearly risk was well contained etc. Also I probably wouldn't have taken the third trade because I had already noticed that it wasn't acting how it should from the first two, but then it made a decisive down move below the low on volume.

GENE: This was a big slipup for the day. And believe it or not I actually made money long this. Being the first day of an upmove any counter-trend positions (shorts) should have been established at the high of the day, but I established it short after a chat-room alerted long and basically got squeezed. This was in the morning, when no change of character had occurred etc.
There was some decent scalping opportunities that I missed, and I missed the midday long because I was sleeping, but then caught it as a slight chase.
When this turns into a short it will be an amazing conviction trade, so I need to prepare and exact checklist to hammer in the size on it.

Swing Trades: -$112. Handled a CRMD news squeeze pretty well today I thought, so pretty happy with that.

CRMD: As mentioned prior my risk is based off the $9 level, but I can't get squeezed out on the open at the high of day. I shorted nicely on the open into the $9 level but I'm not sure why I didn't anticipate it flushing over $9 and get some nice entries there... Didn't quite get back to breakeven to get some size off, but took it off anyway and plan to re-add it on the open. Risk still off $9, but it won't be closed in the first 30 minutes of the day.
Daily looks ready to roll, just needs the one more peak out day.

AXN: Quite large in back account. Looking at the daily this thing is toast, so will hold for 5 days from here. It released news after hours which may cause some issues but I would expect any gap to be sold into. All volume etc is gone.

LL: Sold 2 options, and will sell the other two soon. Still like the way the daily looks though.

ADXS: Had a massive gap up and made new all-time highs in the premarket. unfortunately I had been anticipating higher for an intraday trade (some of which would have turned into a swing). 3 tests of the highs doesn't make me a little nervous about the options though. Still plenty of time at the moment, but just food for though.

Refining Shorting Parabolic, Buying Washout Methodology

Recently have been struggling to control risk when fading overextensions, so looking to specify exact parameters for controlling risk when playing some of these moves.

(1) Is there news?
   - What is the news? As a result can an overextended area be anticipated? Is there any possibility of         undefined/halt risk? (size accordingly).

(2) What is the time of day?
   - Stock will move further in the premarket and open than middle of the day, and don't even bother         fading momentum until the close...

(3) Is there any levels nearby to work with?
   - Can either scale in based on risk off a level, or enter a little larger than normal at the level/flush of       level (risk on level), then add on confirmation.

(4) Don't even consider fading it if it is less than 1 ATR from vwap.
   - This depends on recent ranges of course. Sometimes ATR won't have adjusted for recent ranges.         Use common sense.
   - This also depends on news. If there is news you want a lot more than 1 ATR from vwap.

(5) Remember there's no need to rush. The top/bottom is always more obvious a few minutes later.
   - At this point it is so much easier to control risk.
   - Place a stop approximately 0.1ATR below/above the low/high, then bid/offer to get full size near         that point. There will almost always be a secondary push to near that level.

(6) Use hard stoploss, not mental.
   - This is because I have been lacking the discipline to execute a mental stoploss.
   - With placing of hard stoploss, make an ATR allowance for where it can't reach to be considered a       hold below (if that's what I'm concerned about).

(7) Only use a maximum of half size when fading the initial move.
   - Keep reminding self that top/bottom will be a lot clearer once in place.
   - Remember it is okay to miss this part of the move.

(8) Analyse the Price Action. Is it spiking and emotional, or is it just grindy.
   - Spiking and emotional is a lot cleaner and offer better opportunities.
   - Grinding price action is very difficult to obtain edge, who knows where it stops.
   - Remember it's okay to miss the less than perfect ones.

There is more to the method than that. But this is a good summary for the risk taking procedures. Accordingly, reviewing this list when making a similar play will be pretty handy!!

Weekly Review: 03-29-2015

Intraday Trades for the week: -$1280.

Swing Trades for the week: +$520.

This week involved a slight change in approach/methodology for intraday trading. As mentioned last week the goal was to focus on higher conviction setups. Now I really struggled with this at the start of the week because trading a higher conviction setup means it is harder to be proven wrong... But I seemed to have got the hang of it, then I had a lapse of discipline relating to something else. Despite this I like trading with an increased level of conviction, because it means you are more comfortable buying near/at lows and selling near/at highs and as a result generally end up with better averages. Sometimes this better average means that even if you're proven wrong the trade still ends up profitable. So that's a continued goal for this week.

Very clearly main focus for the coming week is still to keep losses on individual stocks below/to $300. However, when I look back at some of the bigger losses recently they have all been shorting parabolic, buying washout type trades and so I will dedicate a post to refining methodology for this type of setup (with focus on risk and sizing). I already have a standardised approach, but I think keeping it written out and on hand will help with the discipline aspect of it. Reviewing my stock fading overextension methodology should also help with thinking about the adjustments I've been making to my fx system.

To Sum Up:
(1) Take higher conviction trades.
(2) Keep losses on individual stocks to less than $300.

Trading Review: 03-27-2015

Intraday Trading: -$1283. Basically just stubborn on OHRP; I knew where my risk was, but the spread was quite wide and I wanted to see a hold below the level, but then when the hold came I didn't cut it. Also a failure with methodology for buying washouts - more on that in weekly review. Called it a day after that.

OHRP: Basically started in too early premarket. Used too much size and then didn't cut when it made/held a new low. The big loss was a result of poor discipline, not very well refined methodology, and too much size (which result of combo of methodogy, and poor discipline).

Swing Trades: +$18. Obviously just status quo with swings after calling it a day.

AXN: Still love this short, and am still quite large in back account. I notice that the borrow fees are quite high for it, so just something to bear in mind.On first red day I would like to add to the short position.
Also holding period: Target is either 1.20-1.30 or hold for 5 down days (that seems to be the pattern).

CRMD: I am reasonably surprised how well it is holding up here. Looking for an overextension into the high $8s to get to full position size.

LL: Definitely set up for the squeeze but still just not quite getting going. Over $32.50ish would be constructive for the squeeze, but I am running out of time with the options, I don't want to hold until expiration. So if it isn't hard up against, or over $32.50 by end of trading Tuesday I will liquidate.

ADXS: Really unusual trading stock. The consolidation near the highs here suggests that it's no longer overextended, so another go above $14 and it may just push higher... Lucky I'm in the options so I don't have to worry about trying to work out where to stop.

Trading Review: 03-26-2015

Intraday Trading: +1128. Completely missed the biotech rebound in the morning that I had been preparing for, so was feeling a little down about that. Managed to not turn that into a bad situation by being disciplined and spotted the oil opportunity middle of the day, which obviously made my day. Really happy about attitude towards the oil, was anticipating areas for entry and getting great low risk entries.Was a slight lack of focus in the morning as I was paying attention to the euro - probably contributing to missing the biotechs, and the loss in LL which could have been profitable if managed correctly.

WLL: Reasonably basic rollover pattern. Happy with trade. Could have been profitable if literally managed ASAP.

KRFT: Missed this rally to $85 on the open which was annoying, especially since I called it out on the chat.Obviously would have been a decent winner. Got the rally into $85 late day. The thing I'm really happy with about this is that I watched it pop into $85, fail, and then got the secondary pop. So really good controlling risk, and accordingly I probably could have been slightly larger.

CL: Obviously trade(s) of the day. Basically noticed after completing a soft gap fill it was trading at the US session highs, and was above the Asian session vwap. So I got long with ~15c risk, and got around 50c, so good trade. Was probably a little greedy with my second lot, wanting that low probability late day squeezer rather than taking it into the area I had anticipated of $51.50. Really good trading!!

SNDK: Was looking for the wash, hold and reclaim vwap. Really good entry, should have managed some quicker, but overall good trade. Was stopped at a relative low, but the bigger picture idea didn't work out so I'm happy. Better management and would have been profitable, like LL.

LL: Nailed the morning wash for a weak open r/g type move. Failed, but rallied a little over 50c back from entry (to opening print), so obviously should have taken some off there.

Swing Trading: -$496. Crazy day on the swing trading, haven't had a day like that in a while where all positions are down.

AXN: I have no borrows, but luckily have some in back account, so I established quite a large short position here. Can easily still go higher, but momentum fizzling a little. Risk on hold over $2 (i.e. not para over $2).

CRMD: Waiting to establish more. I feel like it's probably peaking out at $8 here, but I would like to get adds closer to $9, so stuck with this position size for now.

ADXS: A real shame I didn't establish a swing near the highs, but glad to be expressing view via options.

LL: I'd say squeeze thesis is busted after todays slow fade. However, I will assess liquidity and where best offer is, and see if I can get a nice exit on the offer, or if I am stuck bagholding to zero. If it does squeeze it will be a little random, so it's probably not the end of the world bagholding them.

Trading Review: 03-25-2015

Intraday Trading: -$892. Really really annoyed about the day. After trading so well yesterday I was just too happy with my progress and didn't keep it up. There were a few signs of poor trading (not getting amazingly good patient entries) and then the massive mistake with KRFT... Was down $1500 on KRFT at peak, instead of cutting losses (so that I was down say 200-500 at peak), and then nailing the final downmove, adding in to a winner, which would have yielded me about +1000ish. I had the right intuition about what was going to happen the entire time, but just got size, and process, and controlling losses all wrong. I think I need to work on how to control losses for these parabolic moves that go further than expected... But it will require quite a bit of thought, and something for over the weekend.

VBLT: I actually nailed this long with 300 shares and just missed the sale on the second third of my position at the top. I need to be more weary of these midday breakouts, cause they tend to be just rubbish, even if they hold above etc. So that was good.
Then as it reversed midday I got heavily long into it and was stopped at the bottom. Why did I? Purely because there was a large offer and these and order flow contrarian. Which is absolutely silly... That is just one component to a good trade. Anyway, I was stopped at the low which I deserved.

TWTR: Obviously had the completely wrong bias on this. In general I overtraded it with too much size, and got stopped out quite a lot, rather than focusing on good entries and maximising probability of success.
This was one of the first signs that I was trading poorly.

ORMP: Tried it for the weak open r/g type trade. Obviously didn't work, but happy with cutting the loss etc. Good trade.

LL: This thing has been super tough.. Very lucky I put in a swing on the options. For tomorrow, remember that each stock has a personality and so I should adjust to how this thing doesn't quite like to hold that nicely.  Or just steer clear of it unless can buy near lows etc..

KRFT: I initially shorted into the premarket high, and instead of simply stopping myself out I waited and waited and then added... Then held stubbornly... Could have been a killer short, but completely messed it up.

FB: Tried it when it was perking under vwap in the morning but just didn't quite work out. This is an example of a trade, where if waiting for good entry I could have risked 10c instead of 30c, then covered risk when it rallied, and in result a profitable trade. Patience for entries!! Still all that being said, it was a reasonably trade. Controlled risk etc, certainly better than plenty I made today.

ESPR: $100 secondary price. Bidded in front and on a wash. It doesn't make any sense to be bidding in front because spready stock, big ATR and first test/open=likely for wash. So I did a good job of flipping it, but then as it held under I didn't close the rest, and instead let myself get stopped out.

Swing Trades: +$134.

FB: Bit of a shame I narrowly avoided getting met on the next contract for sale. I guess something to consider is that around midday it became clear that there was a change of character for FB, and so combined with yesterday afternoon selling it was no longer going to be a good trade.

AXN: Proving the value of active management. May get a chance to add higher... If I can get borrows... This looks more like a dead cat bounce, so should be looking to short again sometime tomorrow.

CRMD: Initiated position. Bit of a chase, but have plenty of firepower left. Looking for 5s if I don't get to add higher, but will manage accordingly.

Trading Review: 03-24-2015

Intraday Trading: +$367. I am going to begin including my back account in my reviews starting in April due to the size it has grown to and that I am trading more actively in it than expected (RADA today is one not included in PnL figures but that there are intraday lessons to be learnt). Ideally eventually the back account will grow to the point where I can (predominantly) keep swing trades in back account and intraday trades in main account. Obviously the line in the sand won't be 100% clear and there will be a mix based on borrows, and intraday trades turning into swings. Overnight trades would also still go in main account.
So today was a pretty good day. The probability of success was more in line with what I have been aiming for, and all of the ideas were reasonably high conviction ideas. Looking at the results again, there are really only two identifiable mistakes that I made and I dealt with those in a timely manner, so really really good trade. I missed 2 or 3 excellent trades, that I had high conviction in (which I may as well review in here for the sake of learning purposes), so today was very much a grinding type day, so am feeling reasonably happy with the day.

DGLY: This was just a scalp around Tim alerts. He alerted long late day, but the chart is clearly a short to me. Waited about 10 minutes for it to peak out, offered out providing liquidity, then as it started breaking down his sale fueled the fire. This type of trade will only ever be a scalp, but I may continue to do it purely because it is a good attitude to get into, rather than trying to follow others... It also preaches patience.

SWKS: Shorted the break of morning consolidation (which was also vwap), stoploss above. Reasonably happy with trade, but certainly not an amazing setup.

SONS: Didn't even have a monster trade in this. Was just two really good trades. Gapped down large off earnings, but first move was up an held higher. Got long, stoploss below consolidation, managed appropriately and taken off into resistance (wasn't greedy).
Then mid morning it was clear it was peaking out at resistance, so I flipped short, looking for move to lows. Again, wasn't greedy and managed appropriately, and then took rest off when it paused and RR didn't make sense to hold any longer. Great trading!!!!

QUNR: I nailed this for the weak open red to green setup. Only had 200 shares but sold 100 for ~$1 profit, and the other 100 for about $1.50ish. Now late day I was looking for a fade and basically got too large on the short and ended up stopping at the post 3pm high. Now I'm okay with that but I think risk was a little wide, and position too large. Gave back far too much profit.

PRTA: This was actually a bad trade. A really good trade idea though, but poorly executed. Good thing I realised this and covered short very quickly. A real shame I didn't revisit this midday, this was one of those high conviction shorts I mentioned.

LL: Still same idea as yesterday and is a high conviction idea, but has to be executed well because it just doesn't want to to work yet. Sold into strength despite high conviction. Good stuff!!! This is going to have a massive squeeze if it gets going so I grabbed some far out of the money calls.

GENE: I'm okay with this trade cause it's due for a bounce, but I was too large, and so lost more than I should have. Would have been plenty of time to add if it was going to work. But didn't get stubborn, just got out, so good stuff.

BABA: This one was sort of funny in a way. Bigger picture it's really looking over a little, but $82.80 was reasonable support and it was doing big volume below the level, while being a little overextended. So I got long. Risk 20c, stop below the lows. Only 200 shares, but sold half quickly to cover risk. Had been looking for $84 on the last half, but took it off when it paused at $83.50. Good trade!!

HLF: I completely missed this. I came in wanting to short an opening pop but didn't get high enough (which I'm happy enough about, patience is key at this stage), then tried to short as it was consolidating at the lows but had no shorts and my back account BP was maxed out via RADA. Disappointing... What a trade!!!

ADXS:  Where my offers were I would have nailed short.. But I cancelled them. To be fair, it looked pretty constructive at that point, but turned out to be a massive midday stuff (which I should have been expecting).

RADA: I was short back account basically looking for it to hold red, and below vwap. I had strong conviction it was toast (because of the volume, and historical price action). So that midday stuff, which got over vwap twice got me out. I'm pretty happy I closed short (because that was my plan), but this reinforces the importance of revisiting a trade. Once back below vwap it was very clearly a short again.

Swing Trades: +$682.

FB: Trimmed a little today. Perhaps should have trimmed a little more, but with twitter strength it should pull it through a little more.

AXN: Looking for $1 from here. Still impossible to short again.