Tuesday, 31 March 2015

Trading Review: 03-31-2015

















Intraday Trading: +$130. Spent a lot of the day focused on my GENE trade in my back account, which was with massive size. Was a pain to have to trade it in back account but IB ran out of shares early. Mucked up execution of it, should have been a very decent sized winner; so I will do a playbook review of it.
Aside from GENE I had really really good patient disciplined day (and even that was "relatively" unemotional given the size I was trading). Waited for the levels for the most part, and the only sizing slip-up was on ADXS, which wasn't too bad .
Mistakes:
(1) Impatience in waiting for level for KRFT. Particularly given the grinding price action and no clear        reversal pattern. Also given that looking at the daily rollover I'm bigger picture bearish.
(2) Too much size into ADXS parabolic too early, expecting a "stuff" rather than waiting to see what        price action told me.

TSLA: Shorted on the open, stop above 194, covered risk very quickly and held next half for another $1. Don't really like trading TSLA too much so it was only a small position.






















QUNR: Really surprised by this, I expected it to break through $40. Got a nice patient entry and had stop at r/g (slightly above day high). Hindsight I should have then trailed the stoploss once $40 held and made a slight higher low.






















KRFT: Was a few slight mistakes in KRFT. $87.35ish was the low from the prior day so I was looking to buy into that level (which also corresponded with a roughly 1ATR move), but did first attempt at long at 88 after it paused for a brief moment (not a drawn out reversal pattern just a slight curl up and pause). Stopped on new low.
Then it moved quickly downwards and bottomed at 87.50 and I managed to get filled on 100 shares (about 1/4 of what I wanted), nevertheless I half into the spike and then got more fills as it moved down. There's a key lesson here: With grinding type price action you do not want to be buying a flush on the second attempt at the level (2nd attempt more likely to be a real break). So I lost a bit of money there and was stopped lower.
Now it started to show a character change about 12:15 and base out, which provided plenty of opportunities to bid in appropriate places... But I had already had 2 losing trades and I decided it wasn't a good enough idea to give it another go. Naturally it rallied about $1 to $88 after this, and would have recovered all the prior losses and then some, but that's okay!
I haven't had a huge amount of experience at exploiting level edges, so I'm okay with the way I traded this, but I will need to put in some work later on exact processes to follow.






















HZNP: This was just mucking around with smaller size against the $25.70 level that was made earlier in the day. Once it tested $25.70 a couple of times I trailed stoploss to just below the low and was wicked out, but all okay! Managed half in appropriate position and all good!






















GBSN: Chased a little long and sold into spike. Had wanted to get a little more lower, but was patient and the opportunity never came so that's okay. Missed sale on next 1/3, and sold 2/3s as it began to struggle. Could have been more patient with the remaining 2/3 but I saw Shark was adding to his short so decided not to.






















DANG: Gap up on earnings and holding near the highs after failing to make a new low. Began to long dips, and then added as it went in my favour. Decided it wasn't going to work and sold it for around breakeven. Clearly could have sold near the highs if patient, but don't think it was worth the trouble.

CONN: Simply shorted small into parabolic. Has a short interest of 50% so was just being a little careful with this, and in the end opted not to add once it had peaked out. The spike on air from about 33.00 to 33.80 demonstrates my point about the riskiness. That being said, I would have been more prepared to put some size on if it had made it to around $35. A good change from my recent attitude of shorting parabolics - going through and reinforcing how I trade them really helped!






















BMY: Really nice trade. Should have had an entry about 5c better, but nevermind. Probably should have been a bit bigger as well given the excellent RR characteristics of the trade.
Was tight directly below vwap with a downtrend. Above vwap would have been long signal and below tight consolidation a signal of trend continuation. It actually caused a little grief on the initial break, because it broke higher, and then broke lower - basically wasn't that clean. But there was a very clear momentum when it tested about 64.90 when it was obvious, and I got short there, whereas I should have got short a little and offer 64.95ish. Nevertheless, good trade.






















ADXS: Shorted into the excessive upmove as it broke into new all-time highs. Given how far it had run intraday (over 1ATR) and the time of day I had reasonable confidence in doing this with a risk based off $15. My expectation was that it would stuff through the $14.50 level and be a fake breakout. However, when it held the $14.50 level a little too well I didn't have any room to add more size into $15. So this was a slipup, more or less the opposite of what happened with the stressfree parabolic of CONN.






















GENE: Ran out of shorts at IB early, so just left the 100 shares on just for the sake of it (helps keep an eye on what's going on!). Thankfully I now have a back account with good borrows so it's not as bigger deal when IB runs outa shares.

Swing Trades: -$1052. Basically comes from CRMD massive squeeze. It could have been played better, it was a little bit of a recurring theme in my swing trades recently so will be part of my monthly review to go through, reinforce and structure my swing trading process.

AXN: Still have massive size in back account. Was down at $1.60 at it's peak today. However, I'm actually okay with this due to the fact that my exit plan is to wait for 5 down days (this is number 2). Now the need to manage some of the position out is gone because I have a good average and price action is now confirming my thesis.



























ADXS: Reality is that it's time to start offering out the options. Price action is telling a different story, and my understanding is that this is a fundamentally stronger company (despite having tonnes of warrants etc...) than say GENE or CRMD, so it's just not worth the trouble given the conflict between price action and fundamentals. Something like ACHN kinda comes to mind, where it's still overvalued, but is going to be a slow fade-off with no clear spots for the big pull.

LL: Finally starting to work.. But my options expire soon! So planning on rolling them over to a new expiry.

CRMD: The killer of the day. Basically just a big dirty squeeze. I actually didn't trade it too bad. I got nice adds on the open but then didn't get my size off when I was in profit.This is going to make an amazing play when it finally tops!! Thinking like maybe gap up $11 push then hammer it. Will wait for below vwap to establish any size on swing.


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