Saturday, 7 March 2015
Trading Review: 03-06-2015
Intraday Trading: -$482 for the day. Good day overall, pretty clear where the negative pnl came from. Reflecting on goal, I controlled risk well (with the exception of letting a loss on individual stock exceeding $300), I was a bit large in EYES and CRMD, and didn't manage the OREX trade idea well in terms of size (had the right size but not in the right spots). I also focused on getting good correct patient entries. Despite the number of tickers I traded I did curb the overtrading.
OREX: OREX gapped down quite significantly. In the afternoon it began grinding up to vwap at $7.00 and tested it several times. There was obviously a hard seller at $7.00. Now I loaded up prior to the break anticipating it, however given the thickness of the stock and volume there was no reason I couldn't have used a stop-limit to load up at $7.02 which would have been a really really high probability trade.
GERN: GERN gapped down and drove lower on the open. After failing to perk up and look for a move higher I established short position and decided to swing it, when didn't reach profit targets. Profit target won't be too far away though, probably only looking for 3.20s or so.
LEAF: This is a trade idea I've been sitting on for a while, and finally began to work. I had planned to add closer to $50.00 but it didn't give me a chance, so got 200 share entry at $49.50. Managed half, and now holding rest as swing. Gap fill is to $40.00 (naturally I won't hold it this long), so there should be some more good trades at some point.
Didn't get a chance to add into the close for the break, but I'm okay with that because I'm being patient for prices that I want.
BABA: After the fierceness of the bounce off $80, looked like it was time to get short. So after the opening action confirmed this idea I got short, and managed the position accordingly. The only mistake I made was not covering the remaining 100 shares at $84 which was a support zone, so I gave back ~$50 there.
UFS: Midday spike, which apparently the news was false, so once weakness was confirmed I got short (using offers, which I patiently got met on!) and exited the position once it began to hold. I was going to hold remaining 1/3 for 44-45ish but decided not to on the basis that no reason to be greedy. Good trade!
SPY: I traded the SPY really really poorly. The daily chart was just rolling over, and was the first down day in quite a while. 209-208.70 was really the level that it had to hold and there was a consistent seller on the offer (CHX) the whole day. Also note the clear restest of the 208.70 level. So aside from into the 207.50 level there was never any reason for me to be long. This is a prime example of the charts I say away from fading (e.g. BABA the other day how it just grinds up and never really overextends). So some positives. I identified that the puts were a better way to play it so I did use the for a good part of the trend and managed them very effectively. I managed my risk on the options really really well, which is something I have struggled to do in the past. Good RR, the puts well and truly paid for one negative trade on the calls.
RGLS: $20 was a key b/o level, so after it successfully held I got long against that level, looking for a move to r/g ($21). Good RR. Can't help but think I could have played it differently. But overall good trade. Should never have been weak enough to make another low if it was going to be a monster.
The way it held and consolidated I think it's worth a revisit at some point.
QIHU: Got long after a hold near the highs. Hindsight it had already moved 1 ATR. But controlled risk, small loss, not that bigger deal.
PEIX: I'm doing this review on the Saturday (EST) after Fridays trading and I thought the trade I made was long into $11, that's the clear level from yesterday, and the area where it becomes overextended a lil bit. Apparently not. Got long near the highs and stopped, bad trade. The long into $11 was the trade to make.
LL: I absolutely nailed this trend short, with about 400 shares short, so to come out only slightly positive is a bit disappointing. Not enough management is how I would sum it up. When something is grinding down, rather than a hard downtrend you need to adjust your expectations a little bit.
FL: Gap up, shorted near opening high. Was stopped at the high of day. Point being, once it was holding the gap by about midday I should have been more cautious and only taken a hod rejection short, rather than one with 20c stop.
EYES: Number 1 dumb trade(s) of the day. Was doing big volume on the open which in the past had indicated strength, so I got long on consolidation pattern on the open. Not a bad idea, mistakes here were:(1) Wasn't close enough to bottom of consolidation, (2) too large. Next mistake tried the same idea on b/o, again too large, but at least tight stop.
CRMD: The real loser of the day, and although there was one mistake that I will elaborate on, apart from the size, and continuing to trade it after I had lost $300 I didn't actually trade it too poorly.
Mistake 1. Size. Mistake 2. Continuing after I had lost $300. Mistake 3. Allowing bias to be too easily switched.
In my writeup for goals and how I will achieve them I have talked about how an excellent entry for a trade idea is on the fakeout from the line in the sand. To have this kind of conviction in an idea requires not switching bias very easily. The key being that there are times to reverse a trade, and there are times to not reverse a trade and actually add to the position. Differentiating them is the difficult thing.
$7.80 was yesterdays high and the r/g zone. I shorted in the morning against this level and stopped myself out when it went above, which I think was a good trade (just a little large). Now when it held r/g zone I switched to bullish bias (squeeze shorts, good volume etc), that's a good switch of bias because it was holding, so I tried to get long, but my average wasn't quite good enough (I bidded lower but not low enough), so when it washed r/g area on a late day fade pattern I couldn't add and was stopped. I then got short quite large and was stopped on the move above r/g.
Overall point being, had I kept the same bias throughout the day I would have been in from great prices. The morning short still would have been stopped, but if I kept short bias I would have been short from just over $8.00 on the hod rejection (even though bullish bias was correct), and if I had kept my bullish bias I would have been long into the close.
Seems easy to borrow though and going into third big day on volume. So I will smash this swing short come Monday/Tuesday. Remember starter position and add as it moves in favour.
ADXS: I'm really happy this has come back so I can smash it swing short. Tried midday for a hod rejection but didn't work. Good trade, will revisit and will aim to be very large. Remember starter position and add down.
Swing Trades: +$159 for the day.
BIOC: Finally starting to work. Will hold the rest for $2.70ish or lower. I don't like this setup amazingly compared to say ADXS or CRMD though. And the sizes will reflect that.
TLPY: This is the new stock tips pick. Reality is I'm too large on this, but I'm actually okay with that. I think the probability of a gap and go is quite high, while downside is probably limited (unless panic on open of course).
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