Sunday, 15 March 2015

Trading Review: 03-13-2015















Intraday Trades: +$125. Wasn't a huge amount of opportunity out there, and this is probably a good example of a day that could have easily be turned negative by overtrading etc. Slipped up a little by not managing quite enough again, but overall extremely happy.

GWPH: This was probably as close to a lack of discipline that occurred. Shorted the grind up near the end of the day with absolutely tiny size (cause I felt like it was a bad trade). Then as it began to tighten up I reversed the trade to long, and took a little bit. Again, these were probably bad trades, RR just wasn't there. Had I got better prices with slightly lower risk the GWPH long trade may have been worth it.






















HZNP: Got short into the r/g zone. Did a really good job of not getting faked out. Was a little ambitious with targets, this is the one I was referring to when I said I didn't quite manage positions enough. Given the historical tendency for it to save itself I should have been taking quite a bit off. In general shorted pops and covered dips. Overall good trading. I think the management thing really depends on the situation. For example, this is a trade which has a historical tendency to save itself, plus is still well within a defined uptrend on the daily. It is also nearing it's ATR, and is a intraday trade not a swing. Compare to say ADXS where it's not in an uptrend on daily (but shorter term momo is up), and it's a swing trade, and I haven't quite managed to get my desired position size yet. Even so I probably should have covered ADXS at the lows (because it was an ATR move).






















ACAD: Tried to join the trend on a retracement as it was holding near the lows, but was stopped out. Small loss, so good trade! From a price action perspective a reason to stay small in this trade is that midday fakeout.






















FXCM: Was gearing up near the highs and holding vwap. Was reasonably big, but pretty happy with trade despite the loss. It had all the elements of a good long trade. Day 1, holding vwap, news flow, bigger picture breakout/trend.






















GENE: Great short idea, but poor execution. I was looking at this gap premarket thinking that I had to make sure I was short biased rather than looking for long. So I did a good job of that. Ended up with an average of about $5ish, so one more push to highs and I really would have been out which would have been a decent loss. It had closed at around $5.50 in Australia so I really should have been anticipating the $5.20s. Really good job of not being faked out by the opening madness. However, I was spot on with my perception that it would fade all day, despite this I still managed half the position at the appropriate RR place. Great trade.
One thing I'm a little disappointed with looking at this stock is that I had been trying to get a swing long for a crappy dead-cat bounce like this for quite a while. Unfortunately I had been buying strength/confirmation, rather than weakness which meant I wasn't able to hold through.
I wouldn't be surprised if this offered more opportunities to short.






















HLF: I never really got the appropriate size on this trade. I shorted into the after hours high from previous day of $38 and was stopped above. However, I then shorted again as it started failing (good stuff!) and managed into downmove. But then it made a lower high, and of particular attention it stuffed through $38 again. Once this was confirmed this was the spot to load up. I managed entire position into $37, but if I had been bigger I could have caught the move to $36 with about 1.4 size or so.






















CYBR: There was a slight lapse of discipline in this trade. I got long in front of $51, with a plan to stop out on a hold below, but I just delayed it a little bit and probably lost another 10-20c. The warning sign was that the downtrend was too consistent. I will need to keep an eye on this for the next few days though, so if it can re-establish above $51.






















EBAY: $59.10 was a really nice level from the prior 5 days or so, plus it represented an ATR move. Narrowly missed the first drop to that area, and then got the second and was stopped below $59. Good trade. Could have revisited the stock for a short perhaps against the level, but overall good trade.


Swing Trades: +$319.

AXN: This more or less happened exactly like anticipated. I aggressively offered into the opening spike, but wanted a $2 stuff. So only managed to get 3/4 of the position size I wanted. They announced an offered at $1.36 but it was a private one and quite small. I should have taken some off when it got back to my breakeven point instead of being greedy. Then I could have short more to pull up average into hte midday move. I am going to use a time basis to scale out of this position. I will manage half into the offering price, and then hold the rest for approximately 5-6 down days.






















ADXS: Still focused on adding pops on this beast. The fake below $12 should add some fuel for 13+ so that's where I should be adding to look to manage down at $12.00. I should have taken a little off into this, because it's what I was expecting, but again was being greedy. But seeing as the trend isn't quite established yet I need to focus on effective management to reduce risk at appropriate places.






















LL: My thesis on these options if stuffed. However the RR favours offering up at 25c ish.

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