Wednesday, 21 October 2015

Playbook Review: 10-20-2015 ERII

Title: Shorting a Massive Gap up with Real News

Strategy Description: ERII had a massive contract worth about the same as the current market cap so a 100% move actually seemed somewhat reasonable for once. Now everyone was aware of that and of course when everyone is thinking the same thing it usually doesn't happen.

A couple of comments about ERII:
(1) The daily chart is pretty beat down.
(2) $7.75 a really big level on the daily.
(3) It's not low float. About 30m or so.

So going into the open I was planning on buying a flush to the low/mid 6s for a rally back to the highs. Price action told a different story. Note that I was prepared to short it, but really wanted it quite a bit higher because of the strong premarket action and also the news. That is why I didn't take the short into the opening push; and I'm okay with that.

Now here's where I made a few mistakes:
(1) I tried to buy a pullback at a relatively arbitrary place. Should have waited for a somewhat better setup, was a bit jumpy and stop-loss wasn't too clear.
(2) The pullback from the new highs to the opening market print was a sign of weaknes. It shouldn't have pulled back that far. I bought around here against the lows and added as it got above vwap (which turned into a vwap stuff). This vwap stuff was actually an amazing short setup. Where I stopped my long was the place to initiate a short with size against vwap(ish).


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