Tuesday, 13 October 2015

Playbook Review: ESPR 10-13-2015

Title: Strong Downtrend Bounce Failing.

Strategy Description: ESPR has basically turned from a high flier into a giant piece of crap... Yesterday it gapped up, which was basically it's chance to finally catch a bit of a bounce; but the gap up not only failed but it ended up red on the day.

This is a classic momo play. The daily is in a strong consistent downtrend. But what really makes this play is the hourly. It gapped down on news and now the bounce (and subsequent attempt at gap fill) has failed and is rolling over again.

$23 is a big level on the hourly, below which you would consider a swing trade; but you can see the intraday chart provided a much better entry to ride the momentum. Shorting size on a confirmed hold below the lows (with stop on reclaim) is the entry and then ride until trend breaks with appropriate management. Given the bigger picture, downtrend, failed gap up etc it would be reasonable to start in prior to the low break (which I did and was stopped on the second push to test the high. Ultimately given the strong bias the test of the highs should have been used to re-establish a starter position. Either that; or the starter should have had a stop-loss above the highs.





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