Sunday, 25 October 2015

Playbook Review: 10-23-2015 FB (2)

Title: Buying a large cap breakout that's "ruined" by a large gap up.

Strategy Description: FB has been a hot watch for a breakout over $99.20 to all-time highs, then through $100 for a "century" breakout. Now this primo setup got basically ruined by a big gap up to $102-$103. So how to recover from this? Firstly, still definitely want to be looking for long opportunities, but buying anywhere near here would be a decent chase.

One key point is that want to be weary of this being a false break. The gap up could create the selling pressure, then the overhead supply, and the downward momentum to push it back below the breakout level. However, as with everything there should be some bounce on the way if this is the case, and how it reacts to those bounces can be very telling.

In this case the ATR is $2, prior all-time high is $99.20, and obviously $100 is a significant level. The low turned out to be $100.14, which is pretty close to a measured move for a move back to the high :)


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