Sunday, 25 October 2015

Playbook Review: 10-23-2015 NFLX

Title: Due for Bounce, Gearing Up Near High, On Prior Two Days High.

Strategy Description: NFLX had taken a wee dip on the daily and was bouncing off support. With the market up it's definitely due for somewhat of a retracement.

Basing off support yesterdays high was 99.90, and the day before that was 100.34. This was roughly around the peak that was forming today for the morning session so was the perfect place for it to grind up, test and breakout.

The part I really like about this trade is the execution of it. I bought a tiny little bit on the initial b/o, with quite wide risk (to give space for the retest), then as it was retesting and sort of confirmed the hold or at least gave a tradeable point to determine if the breakout was holding. At this point I was still quite small. Then another wee add as it failed to selloff about 15 minutes later, still only about 1/2 size at this point. Then a final add another 10-20 minutes later as you know it's a true b/o with well defined risk.
On the full position size was risking about 30c a share, with high probability of success; despite the original low probability of success buying the b/o with small size. In this case full size wasn't huge (compared to other high conviction setups I have)... But the way I increased the size as becoming more confident maximised the expected value of the play.


No comments:

Post a Comment